Post prop maven Dave Blezow breaks down his favorite bets with some big payouts for you to cash in on this season.
All odds can be found here, via BetMGM:
Most Valuable Player
Blezow’s Breakdown: Quarterbacks have won this award eight years in a row and 13 of the past 14. Three running backs have won it this century, but Derrick Henry rushed for more than 2,000 yards last season and didn’t get a single vote out of 50. Also shut out in 2020 was Lamar Jackson, the unanimous winner in 2019. Another guy who took an O-fer was Russell Wilson, who had an incredible 26 touchdown passes in his first seven games but only 14 more as Aaron Rodgers won it. So who now? Tom Brady has his whole team back and plays a second-place schedule and in a weak division. He may not have video-game stats, but could end up with 14 or 15 wins. Favorite Patrick Mahomes has a rebuilt offensive line. Dallas averaged 35.6 points in Dak Prescott’s five starts last season. And everyone will be looking to La La Land to see if Justin Herbert is for real and what Matthew Stafford can do with Sean McVay.
Winner: Tom Brady, 14/1
Midrange threat: Dak Prescott, 16/1
Live long shot: Matthew Stafford, 20/1
Passing yards leader
Blezow’s Breakdown: Last year’s leader, Deshaun Watson, does not appear in the top 20 favorites as he deals with his legal troubles. Runner-up Patrick Mahomes, now fortified with a better offensive line, is the heavy favorite. He threw for 316 yards per game last year. Dak Prescott played only five games but averaged 371 YPG. He comes back to a loaded Dallas offense. Tom Brady was third but the Bucs figure to be leading most games in the fourth quarter. And Matt Ryan finished fourth, but his incoming coach had a 2,000-yard rusher in Tennessee. Looking for a long shot? How about Russell Wilson? It seemed as if Pete Carroll made a conscious decision to rein him in last season. What if he lets him loose for all of 2021?
Winner: Dak Prescott, 11/2
Fine favorite: Patrick Mahomes, +325
Live long shot: Russell Wilson, 35/1
Rushing yards leader
Blezow’s Breakdown: We’re going to try to beat the favorite here. Derrick Henry has led the NFL in rushing two years in a row. He had 1,540 yards in 2019 and 2,027 last year, but has carried the ball an unbelievable 782 times – including the postseason – in those two years. Plus, the Titans now have a new offensive coordinator. Dalvin Cook was the only runner within 900 yards of Henry in 2020. He’s never played more than 14 games in a season, but did have a 206-yard game last year and has 13 100-plus-yard games the past two seasons. Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor are both 5-yards-a-carry backs, and much respect to Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones. Keep an eye on Steelers rookie Najee Harris.
Winner: Dalvin Cook, 11/2
Midrange threat: Aaron Jones, 22/1
Live long shot: Najee Harris, 28/1
Receiving yards leader
Blezow’s Breakdown: Stefon Diggs wasn’t even in the top 20 on the odds board and won this wager for his backers in 2020. He very well could be right up there again if Josh Allen continues his rapid improvement, but he’s not worth the favorite’s price. Going to go with a couple of home-run hitters here, piggybacking on some thoughts in earlier categories. If Patrick Mahomes has more time to throw, then heaven help defenses trying to stop Tyreek Hill. And if Pete Carroll lets Russell Wilson turn back into DangeRuss, or if the Seahawks have to play from behind a little more, watch out for DK Metcalf. Down the list, maybe I sometimes get too infatuated with “Hard Knocks,” but I’ll buy low on CeeDee Lamb.
Winner: Tyreek Hill, 10/1
Midrange threat: DK Metcalf, 12/1
Live long shot: CeeDee Lamb, 25/1
Other wagers worth making
After going 4-0 on these extra props in 2019, we went 1-3 in 2020. We had a close win with the Panthers Under 5.5 wins but missed badly on WFT Under 5 wins, Jimmy Garoppolo Over 24.5 TD passes and Drew Lock Over 3,500.5 passing yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 12.5 wins (+115): Taking an alternative total at plus money. The defending Super Bowl champs got in as a wild card in 2020 so they don’t have to deal with a first-place schedule, and should run away with a diminished NFC South.
Daniel Jones Under 3,800.5 passing yards (-115): Danny Dimes threw for 2,943 yards in 14 games in 2020, and this would be a big jump even with three extra games. His offensive line still looks suspect, new weapons Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Rudolph have missed time, and Jones gets a lot of his yardage with his feet.
Highest sack total by an individual player — Under 20.5 (-120): The highest number on the board is 12.5 for Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald. Eight more seems a real stretch.
Trevor Lawrence Over 325.5 yards rushing (-110): I don’t expect Lawrence to run a lot but this total is fewer than 20 YPG. If he takes off a few times each week to move the chains and breaks a long one or two, this should be an easy win.