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Aaron Donald, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Tom Brady, Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers are just some of the players who will make a splash this season
Aaron Donald, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Tom Brady, Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers are just some of the players who will make a splash this season. Composite: Getty Images
Aaron Donald, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Tom Brady, Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers are just some of the players who will make a splash this season. Composite: Getty Images

NFL 2021 predictions: who is capable of stopping Mahomes and the Chiefs this season?

This article is more than 2 years old

The NFL kicks off on Thursday. Will Kansas City steamroller the league? Which of the rookies will shine? And who will win MVP?

This will be the year of ...

The rookie quarterback. The five first-rounders have already dominated the preseason discourse and that is likely carry over into the regular one. Mac Jones and Justin Fields will both start for playoff-caliber teams, while Kyle Shanahan has plans to get all sorts of funky with the Niners’ use of Trey Lance, utilizing a two-quarterback system. Chuck in Zach Wilson as the Jets’ latest savior and Trevor Lawrence, who just so happens to be the most gifted of the bunch, and it sets up for a historic year. OC

The 17-game schedule. For a long time, the NFL has made the math easy with even-number schedules that cleanly separate the wheat from the chaff. But with an extra game in the mix now, there will be no more taking Jeff Fisher-like satisfaction in .500 ball. Now teams will record either winning or losing seasons (barring unlikely scenarios involving ties) – a shift that will heap more pressure on coaches and front office types when their rosters don’t make the grade. AL

Comeback kings. A raft of key players are returning from serious injury. Nothing new there, but the sheer volume of talent teams were denied felt unique in 2020. The impact of having them back in the league will be huge as we embark on the longest season ever. GS

Will the extra game this season allow a team with a new/rookie quarterback to make a late run as he gets extra time to get acclimated? How will a team that clinches home field advantage in Week 14 or 15 handle the final few games? And how many more players will the extra week leave injured? MJ

The NFL becomes a proxy culture war as vaccination status starts to become a legitimate factor in every team’s roster decisions. HF

The most underrated team this year is ...

The Patriots. I know, I know: How is it fair that this generation’s dynasty is now able to drop the ‘nobody believes in us’ card? But here they are. The Patriots return a whole bunch of crucial opt-outs on defense. They have the most talented offensive line in the league. And Bill Belichick has already seen enough to feel like Mac Jones is the quarterback capable of executing the precision passing structure that he craves. OC

The Los Angeles Chargers. With a reinforced offensive line and a healthy Mike Williams, quarterback Justin Herbert should take a Pro Bowl step under new coordinator Joe Lombardi, who worked with the Saints’ Drew Brees. But the defense gets the bigger boost with the return of do-it-all defensive back Derwin James. AL

Hate on Teddy Bridgewater all you like, but he is better than Drew Lock. The Denver Broncos have a chance of easing the strain on their mighty defense with Bridgewater moving the sticks. Denver have also quietly assembled an improved roster across the board. Receiver Jerry Jeudy is set to explode after a solid rookie year, too. GS

Seattle Seahawks. It’s weird to think of the NFC West champs as underrated but many don’t see Seattle repeating. Sure, others in the division improved but Seattle should have an upgraded defense, a receiving corps that rivals that of any other team, and most importantly, Russell Wilson. MJ

Indianapolis Colts. It’s hard to look at how things ended with Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles and not be skeptical about how he fares in Indiana. Here’s the thing though: if there’s ever an ideal “change of scenery recharges an athlete” scenario it’s probably “away from Philadelphia.” HF

One bold prediction …

Justin Fields will start the season for the Bears on the bench. Photograph: David Banks/AP

The Bears stink. Hear me out: Chicago still have a championship-caliber defense; Justin Fields will (eventually) bring some oomph to an offense that desperately needs some. That’s a solid foundation. But then you take a look at the Bears’ schedule: they play nine road games; they play at the Rams, Browns, Seahawks, and Packers; they host the Bucs, Niners, Ravens, and Packers. Almost all of those teams profile as 10-win sides, and those wins need to come from somewhere. A couple of injuries or an iffy first few starts for Fields and suddenly the Bears are in a hole that will be tough to climb out of. OC

Derrick Henry takes down Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. The Titans tailback was a mere 78 yards off last year. That’s the difference between only having AJ Brown as a deep threat to having him and Julio Jones in the fold now. AL

The NFC East turns out to be good. The Dallas Cowboys and Washington go to the playoffs. The Giants and Eagles are – and this is where it really ramps up – watchable. GS

At least 10 games will result in a forfeit due to Covid-19. We’ve already seen an outbreak among the Titans this preseason, many of whom were vaccinated. A consistent flow of positive tests has impacted other organizations. The NFL has already said it will not reschedule games this year as it did 18 times last season. MJ

Ben Roethlisberger decides this will be his final season, during the actual season. Then his farewell tour becomes overshadowed by speculation that Aaron Rodgers will take his place in 2022. HF

Johnny Manziel disaster waiting to happen department

Nick Sirianni. Outside of two receivers, Philly’s roster looks old and slow. It’s at times such as this that you need a coach who can scheme his way out of trouble or who can rally the troops. Nick Sirianni doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he can do either. At times this preseason, Sirianni has looked more surprised than anyone that he wound up with this job. It wouldn’t be stunning to see him go one-and-done as a head coach. OC

Dan Snyder continues to make a mess of the Washington Football Team (belated name change aside) and finally sells the team for a hefty profit to someone who knows how to run an NFL franchise. AL

Kirk Cousins. The part-time impressive quarterback and full-time Covid-19 “researcher” fails and his refusal to be vaccinated finds an impressive new wrinkle to tank the Minnesota Vikings’ chances of success. Would you take orders from someone who has considered setting up plexiglass around himself? GS

It’s got to be the eroding relationship between Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Cousins’ strong anti-vax stance has turned Mike Zimmer into a powder keg that might explode at any point, perhaps if Cousins tests positive and derails a game or two by being out for 10 days. MJ

The Tim Tebow debacle was a sign that Trevor Lawrence may not be in the most capable hands: ie the ones belonging to first-time NFL head coach Urban Meyer.

MVP

Matthew Stafford finally looks like he is on a team that can contend. Photograph: Johm McCoy/AP

Matthew Stafford. The MVP is narrative based. It’s unlikely that Aaron Rodgers will win back-to-back, and it already feels like Patrick Mahomes has hit the LeBron vortex, where it’s so clear he’s the most valuable player that awards voters are bored of the conversation. A Stafford rebirth in LA will be this season’s feel-good story. OC

Tom Brady. There’s a reason people invest in gold. It’s safe. AL

Matthew Stafford. The veteran quarterback has found his perfect partner with the Los Angeles Rams. His cool in the pocket, huge arm and craft in playaction will mesh brilliantly in Sean McVay’s offense. GS

Patrick Mahomes. Until Mahomes’ arm is falling off, he’s my pick every year. We ran out of adjectives to describe this guy and his mastery of the position years ago. Now the Chiefs are gifting him a revamped offensive line, the best he’s had in his NFL career. MJ

Patrick Mahomes. Last year the league went with experience, rightfully handing it over to Aaron Rodgers. This time around, look for them to go back to the younger generation. HF

Rookie of the year

Mac Jones. The fifth of the five rookie quarterbacks selected leading one of the league’s premier franchises back to the playoffs is as good a storyline as any. OC

Justin Fields. The Bears’ rickety offensive line only figures to hasten the transition from Andy Dalton to the Ohio State product, not only a dual threat but one with an axe to grind against the teams that passed on him. AL

Elijah Moore. AJ Brown, the receiver’s former Ole Miss teammate, said he would “bet all his game checks” Moore will win. Hyperbole, yes, but Brown’s first-hand knowledge mixed with the receiver’s immense talent tips him over the edge. GS

Mac Jones. Jones, who already shredded defenses this preseason (albeit against some soft zone) will continue his accurate ways and catapult the Patriots to more wins than any of his rookie quarterback brethren. MJ

How about this plot twist in the Year of the Young Quarterback: multiple first-time QBs do well enough thus splitting the vote. In the aftermath, Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts manages to win the honors. HF

AFC East champ

Buffalo Bills. It’s debatable if the Bills have the pass-rush to get past the Chiefs in the playoffs. But despite that, they remain the most well-rounded team in the AFC East. OC

New England. Waiving Cam Newton in training camp speaks to Bill Belichick’s high opinion of Alabama rookie Mac Jones, and suggests the Patriots defense can reprise the high standard it started with in 2020 and overtake the Bills again. AL

The new-look New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will challenge the Buffalo Bills but last season’s AFC East winners should hold both at arm’s length. Complacency when facing Bill Belichick’s revitalised roster and Miami’s swarming secondary needs to be avoided at all costs. GS

Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen would need a major regression for the Bills not to win this division. Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane run one of the smoothest, classiest organizations in football. MJ

Buffalo Bills. So much for the days when the AFC East was just the Patriots and various tomato cans. Look for Buffalo to defend their title but don’t be shocked if New England don’t ride better-than-expected quarterback play from Mac Jones to a return to the postseason, albeit via the wildcard. HF

AFC North champ

Myles Garrett is part of a formidable pass rush for the Browns. Photograph: Kirk Irwin/AP

Cleveland Browns. Cleveland should sport the game’s most dynamic pass-rush, as well as one of the five-best run games. That should be enough to win the AFC North, particularly given the questions swirling around the Ravens. OC

Pittsburgh. It’s championship or bust for Ben Roethlisberger, who has the end of his career in sight. The draft selection of Bama’s Najee Harris will surely help make the offense more balanced and cut down on Roethlisberger’s heroball turnovers. AL

A brutal division only grows stronger in 2021. The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens are the front-runners but the former edge their rivals after upgrading the pass rush with Jadeveon Clowney and Takk McKinley to lineup with Myles Garrett. The one-two uppercut of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt make the Ravens’ running problems (Lamar Jackson aside) more alarming also. GS

Cleveland Browns. The Ravens will give the Browns a run and the Steelers will hang but Cleveland’s top notch offensive line, the continued growth of Baker Mayfield (who doesn’t get enough credit), and a faster, healthier defense will catapult Cleveland to the title. MJ

Baltimore Ravens. We couldn’t already have forgotten about Lamar Jackson? That would be a huge mistake (assuming he stays healthy and isn’t hit by hubris). Let’s also say that the Browns make things interesting here until the very end and secure the other AFC wildcard. HF

AFC South champ

Tennessee Titans. If Carson Wentz can stay healthy all season … and if the team isn’t dinged with players missing games due to the Covid protocol, the Colts have a chance. But those are two massive ‘ifs’. OC

Tennessee. Again: just when you thought Derrick Henry couldn’t get any more unstoppable, the Titans gave up little to acquire Julio Jones – a magnetic receiver who doesn’t get enough credit for his run blocking. AL

The Tennessee Titans take the title by default. Jacksonville will improve with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback but not fast enough and the Indianapolis Colts thrive on defense but nosedive in attack without old man Philip Rivers (already 2-0 as a high-school coach, naturally). GS

The Titans. They could regress this year, especially with the departure of OC Arthur Smith who got the head coach’s job in Atlanta, but the slide would have to be steep not to win this division. MJ

Indianapolis Colts. As with the Ravens, you’d feel better about them if their most important player wasn’t a Covid-risk but if I’m going to pick them as underrated, I can’t justify not picking them to win out their own division. The Tennessee Titans do well enough for a wildcard spot. HF

AFC West champ

Kansas City Chiefs. It will take time for their new offensive line to coalesce, but once it does the Chiefs will be favorites to win it all. Again. OC

Kansas City. It’s Patrick Mahomes’s world. The other teams, alas, are just living in it. AL

The sky is blue, water is wet, Kansas City are AFC West champions. GS

The easiest call in football. The Chiefs will win their sixth AFC West title in a row because they have the NFL’s top quarterback, a boatload of weapons, one of the league’s top coaching staffs, and the aforementioned offensive line upgrades. The Broncos should be tough with their stout defense and the Chargers boast one of the game’s most dynamic young quarterbacks. But no one matches the talent and coaching in Kansas City. MJ

Yep, the Kansas City Chiefs. HF

NFC East champ

Fitzmagic could strike again - this time in Washington. Photograph: Geoff Burke/USA Today Sports

Washington. This is a close call. The division is unlikely to be good, and whether you plump for Washington or Dallas most likely depends on your belief in Dak Prescott’s shoulder holding up for the entire season. Given that he was unable to throw a ball as recently as three weeks ago, it seems like a big ask. OC

How ‘bout them Cowboys? With a healthy Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper, Dallas are head and shoulders above Washington and the New York Giants, whose fans must be wishing they still had Eli Manning to kick around. Philadelphia look keen, but a quarterback room that includes Jalen Hurts, Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew hardly inspires confidence. AL

Dak Prescott is fit and firing so the Dallas Cowboys offer hope that there will be at least one team in the division with a chance of a playoff run this year. The firepower at Prescott’s disposal will most likely set his team up to beat out Washington despite the ferocious defense Ron Rivera continues to build. GS

Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones used his first five picks on defense to boost the defense and Dak Prescott is back on offense. The other teams in the division are intriguing – I especially like what Ron Rivera is building in Washington – but on paper, Dallas are kings. MJ

Dallas Cowboys, thanks to the return of Dak Prescott. This time around, unlike last season’s NFC East winners, the 7-9 Washington Football Team, they probably will have to finish with a record above .500 to win the division. HF

NFC North champ


Green Bay Packers.
It’s championship-or-bust for the Packers this year. They have too much firepower for the rest of the division. OC

Green Bay. As long as they’ve got Aaron Rogers (who gets bestie wideout Randall Cobb back from the Cowboys), the Packers have a chance against anyone. AL

Minnesota and Chicago, both loaded on defense, look better than ever in their attempt to rip control from Green Bay but barring injury to Aaron Rodgers it is not going to happen yet. GS

Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers’s farewell tour will be something special, on par with last year’s MVP performance. At 37, Rodgers is playing as mistake-free and confident as ever. The Vikings are the only challengers as the Lions are the Lions and the Bears are automatically disqualified from positive thoughts after opting to start the season with Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. MJ

Chicago Bears. Assuming that the Andy Dalton era is short-lived, Justin Fields will have a chance to show he is the best Bears quarterback since they did the Super Bowl Shuffle. If so, I can see them taking the division with Aaron Rodgers grudgingly carrying the Green Bay Packers to an NFC wildcard. HF

NFC South champ

It took 10 weeks for the Bucs to really get going last season. Now, they have a chance to hit the ground running from week one. A 15 or 16 win season is realistic. OC

Tampa. It’s good to be the kings, who were still figuring things out offensively in Brady’s first year. What’s more, it was their defense that delivered in the postseason; that unit should have few issues sacking the likes of Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and New Orleans’ Jameis Winston or slowing down the Panthers’ Christian McCaffery. AL

Tommy’s title-toting Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kyle Pitts cannot grab enough touchdowns to outscore Atlanta’s defensive hellscape, the Michael Thomas-shaped hole on offense is too big for the Saints, and Sam Darnold’s ability to lead Carolina is questionable to put it mildly. GS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have Tom Brady under center and retained all their key players from the Super Bowl win. What’s not to like? The Saints will make it interesting with Jameis Winston under center, the same guy who led the NFL in passing yards in 2019. MJ

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It looks like the answer to the question of when Tom Brady will finally break down has once again come back as “undetermined.” HF

NFC West champ

There could be exciting times ahead for Trey Lance and the 49ers. Photograph: Darren Yamashita/USA Today Sports

Los Angeles Rams. I’m skeptical of San Francisco’s two-quarterback dynamic, even though the football nerd within loves the schematic possibilities. Matthew Stafford will bring a downfield element back to the Sean McVay experience that was missing at the end of Jared Goff’s run. Plus: the Rams’ defense should be a top-five unit again. OC

Los Angeles. In a division that doesn’t lack for arm strength, and could feature three run-pass QBs if indeed Trey Lance overtakes Jimmy Garoppolo, the Rams may well require all the firepower Stafford can muster. Lucky he has plenty of it – and Aaron Donald on defense. AL

If you have the best player in the NFL in Aaron Donald, you should have a decent chance of winning the division. Donald’s defense in tandem with Matthew Stafford’s stratospheric improvement on Jared Goff make the Los Angeles Rams the strongest despite very tough competition. GS

San Francisco 49ers. This is the best division in football and any team can take it. The Rams will be a smoother offensive operation with Matthew Stafford under center and Seattle, the defending division champs, are always in the mix despite always their shaky offensive line. But San Francisco – with the full returns of Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and George Kittle, a slew of deep intriguing offensive weapons and two very different but capable quarterbacks – are ready to roll. MJ

San Francisco 49ers. Either Trey Lance emerges as a starting quarterback or somehow the completely overlooked Jimmy Garoppolo plays well enough to force Lance to carry the clipboard for his rookie year. Either way, they win the division over the Rams. HF

AFC wildcard teams

Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers. OC

Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns. AL

Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers. GS

New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers. MJ

New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans. HF

NFC wildcard teams

San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers. OC

New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals. AL

Chicago Bears, Washington, Seattle Seahawks. GS

Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints. MJ

Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints. HF

AFC championship game

Kansas City Chiefs over Cleveland Browns. OC

Kansas City Chiefs over Tennessee Titans. AL

Buffalo Bills over Kansas City Chiefs. GS

Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills. MJ

Kansas City Chiefs over Baltimore Ravens. HF

NFC championship game

Los Angeles Rams over Green Bay Packers. OC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Green Bay Packers. AL

Los Angeles Rams over Green Bay Packers. GS

Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers. MJ

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers. HF

And your Super Bowl LVI winner is …

It may well happen again ... Photograph: John G Mabanglo/EPA

The only concern with the Chiefs is their lack of depth behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. But when your biggest issue is pieces three-through-five behind the best one-two in the league, you’re in a good spot. The Chiefs are betting on Mahomes’ ability to elevate the play of those around him provided he’s kept upright and given some time. I’ll take that bet, too. OC

Kansas City over Tampa. The Chiefs know why they lost last year: they couldn’t protect Mahomes. This summer the Chiefs not only invested major money on Patriots guard Joe Thuney, traded for Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown and spent a second-round pick on Oklahoma’s Creed Humphrey, they also will eventually get back Laurent Duvernay-Tardif – the guard-physician who took a gap year to join the Covid fight after helping KC to victory in Super Bowl LIV. Behind this rebuilt offensive line, “Post Mahomes” exacts revenge. AL

The Buffalo Bills win their first championship after the wounds of last year’s playoff loss to the Chiefs. A healthy offensive line allowing the imperious Josh Allen to play with even greater freedom and a revamped unit on the other side of the trenches should make them unstoppable. GS

Chiefs. The Chiefs were humbled during last season’s Super Bowl loss to Tampa. Now with Mahomes and his improved offensive line (that will really be gelling come February), they’ll be hoisting Lombardi yet again. Besides, if the Packers win then Rodgers might feel an urge to stay in Green Bay and defend his title. That wouldn’t be much fun for the rest of us. MJ

How about a matchup that flips the script and gives us Mahomes as the wily veteran facing off against the hyped-up young phenom? Of course, that’s assuming that it would be Trey Lance taking the 49ers to the Super Bowl and not Jimmy G in control. And, just for variety, let’s say the Niners spring a huge upset on the biggest football stage of all. HF

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