(AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

If you’re looking for someone that moves the needle, Ryan probably isn’t the guy for you. While the Falcons quarterback has been praised for his consistency on the field, this doesn’t necessarily translate into fantasy football success.

Ryan’s fantasy production has been largely hit-or-miss over the last decade. While he did have exceptional seasons in 2016 and 2018, those were the only two years in which he finished top five at his position. In 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020, Ryan failed to crack the top 10.

While he is a quarterback that can win you games, he isn’t one to elevate your roster by any means. The biggest knock on Ryan is his lack of mobility, which hurts his stock as he is limited in providing you max point value. Of the top 30 quarterbacks, Ryan is projected to finish with the second-fewest total carries.

For as many times as Ryan gives you 20 or more points, he will give you more games where he posts less than 14 points. When it came to living up to his fantasy projection in 2020, Ryan posted below his projected total eight times, throwing one fewer touchdowns in eight games last season. In those eight games, Ryan also threw for eight interceptions, further impacting his weekly performance.

What to expect from Ryan in 2021

There are a lot of unknowns when projecting Ryan’s 2021 fantasy outlook. For starters, you could look to Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill for a solid basis. Unlike Tannehill, though, the Falcons don’t have a running back like Derrick Henry to eat away at Ryan’s pass attempts. Tannehill threw the ball 145 times less than Ryan. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith (Titans offensive coordinator 2019-2020) has said on numerous occasions that he will not apply a “copy-and-paste” method in Atlanta and will adjust his offense accordingly.

ESPN doesn’t seem too high on Ryan, who’s ranked No. 15 overall and expected to do worse this season than he did in 2020. Ryan’s projected per game average of 16.9 is nearly a point lower than the 17.65 per game average he posted a year ago.

On the contrary, Pro Football Focus is much higher on Ryan in 2021. While ESPN only projects the Falcons QB to get 287.4 points, PFF gives Ryan a projection of 313.4 points this season.

Ryan’s most favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 5: New York Jets
• Week 10: Dallas Cowboys
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Ryan’s least favorable matchups

• Week 3: New York Giants
• Week 4: Washington Football Team
• Week 7: Miami Dolphins
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 15: San Francisco 49ers

Final Verdict

If you plan on rolling into the 2021 season with Falcons QB Matt Ryan as your starter, it would be wise to wait nine or 10 full rounds before you make your selection. Selecting Ryan above round nine should be considered a hefty reach. Building a team around Ryan will bring you much more success than relying on him to out-duel your opponent’s quarterback each week.

Over the past month, Ryan’s average draft position has peaked at No. 114 overall and has recently dipped to as low as No. 120 overall. This recent dip can be tied to the Falcons trading away Julio Jones.

Ryan’s drop in value gives you ample amount of time to build your roster while everyone else is scrambling to land one of the top quarterbacks available. With Ryan only on 44 percent of fantasy rosters — via ESPN’s Fantasy Football system — there is a chance you could see the Falcons QB drop all the way to round 13.

(AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Davis, an Atlanta native, joined the Falcons this offseason after spending the last season and a half in Carolina. Davis’ career up to this point has seen its fair share of highs and lows. From 2015 to 2019, Davis only totaled 889 yards on the ground, with 514 of those yards coming with Seattle in 2018. In 2020, Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey exited the season early due to injury, allowing for Davis to step in and post a career-best 642 yards and six touchdowns.

Now that Davis has joined the Falcons, the former rival is expected to be the lead back this season. The biggest benefit for Davis is he is no longer hamstrung by an offense built to stretch the field in the passing game, but rather paired up with an offensive mind who can take advantage of his ground-and-pound running style.

In 2020, when Davis carried the ball more than 10 times a game, he averaged 16.53 fantasy points. That’s almost three points higher than his average over the past three years.

What to expect from Davis in 2021

Having a solid stable of running backs in fanatsy football is the prime recipe for success. ESPN projects the Falcons running back to have a less productive season than in 2020, although he’s rostered in 88 percent of ESPN leagues.

On the other hand, Pro Football Focus is much more liberal in their predictions and give Davis a projected total of 209 points in 2021. PFF even projects Davis to carry the ball more times (224) than ESPN (213).

Davis’ most favorable matchups

• Week 3: New York Giants
• Week 8 / 14: Carolina Panthers
• Week 10: Dallas Cowboys
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Davis’ least favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Week 4: Washington Football Team
• Week 9 / 18:  New Orleans Saints
• Week 15: San Francisco 49ers

Final Verdict

Over the past month, Davis has seen his stock rise among experts. Once viewed someone to be taken in the eighth round or later, he’s now pegged as a player who could be taken in the back half of round five. However, you could get away with taking the Falcons running back in round seven despite an ever increasing average draft position. Over the past two months, Davis’ ADP has been as low as 77 overall and has peaked at 62 overall, where he currently sits.

If drafting Davis is an option you are going for, then his best period of usage could come later in the season between Weeks 10 and 16. As noted above, this slate of games has five favorable matchups. Given the extra game this season, a player like Davis could provide your fantasy team with a load management option late in the season as you contend for the playoffs.

(AP Photo/John Bazemore)

In 2020, Ridley posted career bests in targets (137), receptions (90) and yards (1,374). However, his 65 percent catch rate was the lowest of his career. Back in Week 4, Ridley was held without a catch on four targets. For a player projected to go within the first three rounds, it’s crucial that he doesn’t log another game without a reception.

Despite being one of the more sought after weapons in 2020, Ridley failed to meet expectations eight different times. On three of these occasions, Ridley missed his projection by eight or more points. Although, he missed the Falcons’ Week 10 matchup against the Broncos due to an injury and recently said he was banged up for much of the year.

What to expect from Ridley in 2021

ESPN rates Ridley as the NFL’s fifth-best receiver with 279.4 projected points. However, this is down two 2.1 points from last year’s projection and ESPN is also predicting Ridley to get less yards on less targets with a catch percentage of just 63 percent. This would once again be the lowest of his career. Additionally, Ridley is also projected to score just seven touchdowns, lowering his value once more.

On the flip side, Pro Football Focus is very much in favor of the Falcons wideout, projecting a total of 321.3 fantasy points (+39.8 from 2020). Additionally, PFF has Ridley posting a career-high 121 catches on 161 targets (75.2 percent catch rate) for 1,581 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

Ridley’s most favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Week 5: New York jets
• Week 10: Dallas Cowboys
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Ridley’s least favorable matchups

• Week 4: Washington Football team
• Week 8 / 14: Carolina Panthers
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 17: Buffalo Bills

Final Verdict

Despite his low point total in 2020, Ridley remains a prime receiving target this year on all fantasy draft boards. However, if you wish to have Ridley on your team, you must act quickly. Many experts peg the Falcons pass-catcher as a mid-second-round talent, but his average draft position is in the middle of the third round.

When dealing with a player who is valued this high, his draft spot is more so reliant on the flow of the first round. Running backs are generally more valuable than wide receivers, but never rule out a run on receivers earlier than you anticipate. If you want to pull the trigger on Ridley, your best bet is the middle of the second round.

(AP Photo/John Bazemore)

While many are predicting Gage to be the main beneficiary of the Julio Jones trade, the situation isn’t as cut and dry with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts in the fold and the team transitioning to a more balanced offense under Arthur Smith.

In 2020, Gage posted career highs in targets (108), receptions (72), yards (786) and touchdowns (4). With an extra game starting in 2021, these numbers could obviously be eclipsed, but in large part, remain the same on a per game basis. Gage may be the Falcons’ No. 2 receiver behind Ridley, but will still have to fight for targets with Pitts, Hayden Hurst and Olamide Zaccheaus.

What to expect from Gage in 2021

Usually, there is a significant difference between ESPN and Pro Football Focus. However, on the instance of Gage, the projections are more or less the same. Both outlets predict less targets, receptions and yards for the fourth-year receiver this season.

Gage’s most favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Week 5: New York jets
• Week 10: Dallas Cowboys
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Gage’s least favorable matchups

• Week 4: Washington Football team
• Week 8 / 14: Carolina Panthers
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 17: Buffalo Bills

Final Verdict

Gage is undraftable. Sure, he’s the No. 2 receiver on a team that has steadily produced quality depth at the receiver position, but the presumptive makeup of the Falcons’ offense in 2021 doesn’t bend to that standard anymore.

The average draft position for Gage has increased over the past month, but he’s still more valuable getting picked up as a free agent. Considering that the later rounds should be more focused on defense and kickers, drafting Gage could result in getting minimum value for your pick.

(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

There’s nothing really to go off of when projecting Pitts’ production other than head coach Arthur Smith’s previous usage of tight ends while in Tennessee. That won’t be expected to change now that he’s in Atlanta but it’s always hard to predict a rookie tight end’s success. Plus, Pitts offers a lot of flexibility for scheming and can fit in different areas that typical tight ends cant.

What can we expect

It’s important to remember that Pitts has yet to play a true down in the NFL, and was on the field for just two snaps in the preseason. He’s projected for 851 receiving yards on 107 targets, with 76 receptions and seven touchdowns.

Pro Football Focus pegs Pitts as the fourth-best tight end in fantasy for 2021. His 202.4 projection includes seven touchdowns, the third-highest total in the NFL.

ESPN, on the other hand, values Lions TE T.J. Hockenson slightly more than the Falcons rookie. Pitts earns a more modest 190.5 total points for the season. While ESPN and PFF differ in overall value, they both are in line with season productivity and target share.

Pitts’ most favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Week 5: New York jets
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 17: Buffalo Bills

Pitts’ least favorable matchups

• Week 9/18: New Orleans Saints
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 15: San Francisco 49ers
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Final Verdict

The tight end class is top heavy. Passing on one early could put your team in a tough spot later in the draft. Pitts has seen a consistent run of being selected in the fourth round but could go higher based on where you are selecting in the draft order. Just like with Calvin Ridley, Pitts’ true draft spot is more so determined by the flow of the draft and if tight ends are taken earlier than expected. This would expedite his selection into the second or third round.

While Pitts does have tremendous potential, his usage in fantasy could be hindered by two things. First, the Falcons are likely to spread the ball around on offense. And second, Pitts is splitting time with Hayden Hurst — another former first-round pick — which may cut into his target share. Atlanta may have declined Hurst’s option in the offseason, but the fourth-year TE will still get substantial time in Arthur Smith’s offense.

Overall, the upside is there, but there are plenty of roadblocks that could make it tough for Pitts to be a difference-maker as a rookie.

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After losing Austin Hooper in free agency, Atlanta acquired Hurst in a trade with Baltimore during the 2020 offseason. The former first-round pick got his chance to be the featured tight end in an NFL offense, recording 56 catches, 571 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season.

With the loss of Julio Jones, Hurst could potentially see an even bigger increase in production. However, the team drafted tight end Kyle Pitts in the first round, which will cut into Hurst’s targets.

What can we expect

ESPN has Hurst as its 33rd-ranked tight end with a projected total of 89.02 fantasy points — which is 60 points less than his total in 2020. Hurst averaged just over nine fantasy points per game, but his projection for 2021 is around 5.2 points per game. ESPN only projects Hurst for 377 yards on 35 receptions and three scores.

While Pro Football Focus is a bit more Hurst-friendly, it’s not by much. PFF projects Hurst for 405 receiving yards on 40 receptions and four touchdowns, with a per game average of 5.97.

Hurst’s most favorable matchups

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Week 5: New York jets
• Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
• Week 17: Buffalo Bills

Hurst’s least favorable matchups

• Week 9/18: New Orleans Saints
• Week 11: New England Patriots
• Week 15: San Francisco 49ers
• Week 16: Detroit Lions

Final Verdict

Late in the draft, Hurst could be a solid option, depending on the construction of your roster. While Hurst may no longer be the focal point at tight end, he will still see a significant portion of snaps. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith likes to employ offensive sets that feature more than one tight end.

The more likely scenario is that Hurst will go undrafted in your league as his average draft position has declined significantly in recent months, dropping to 270 overall. You’re likely to find more value elsewhere, but until we progress into the season and have a better understanding on how Arthur Smith wants to run his team, it’s best to stay away in the early weeks.