What are the odds Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes wins the National League Cy Young?

With less than a month of baseball left in the 2021 season, the Milwaukee Brewers have several players who merit mention in the postseason awards. 

A Brewers pitcher hasn't won a Cy Young since Rollie Fingers and Pete Vuckovich won the American League awards in back-to-back years, in 1981 and 1982, respectively.

Milwaukee doesn't figure to have a candidate for the MVP award (though Willy Adames may get some votes, with each voter ranking 10 names apiece), nor rookie of the year (an award won by Devin Williams last year). Manager Craig Counsell surely will be acknowledged with manager of the year votes, but it's unlikely anyone other than Giants manager (and former Brewer) Gabe Kapler will earn that plaudit in the National League.

But in the Cy Young race, Corbin Burnes has emerged as the Brewers' best candidate, and a viable one at that.

Here are the candidates and their odds (according to Vegas Insider), with all stats entering Tuesday.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

Buehler has a 2.31 ERA in 179 innings, with a 0.944 WHIP and 184 strikeouts to 45 walks (4.09 K/BB). He's coming off a rare poor outing, in which he allowed six runs in three innings against the Giants, and that comes after he'd allowed just seven runs in his previous seven outings (47⅓ innings). Right now, he's the frontrunner, but it's close enough that the last month will play a factor.

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+250)

Burnes has a 2.38 ERA in 144 innings with a 0.958 WHIP and 196 strikeouts to 28 walks (7.00 K/BB). Burnes shines in the peripheral categories with a 1.58 FIP (fielding independent pitching) among the best ever, and stats like his 0.3 home runs per nine innings, his K/BB ratio and his 1.8 walks per nine innings lead the league. Two split hairs that could stand in his way vs. Buehler: One is that Buehler is pitching for a team with a better record and two is that Buehler has thrown significantly more innings. With a workload-conscious approach, the Brewers have kept Burnes limited to just 144 innings thus far, and Buehler's 179 roughly translate to five additional starts.

Max Scherzer, Los Angeles Dodgers (+275)

Scherzer has been straight dominant since arriving from Washington at the trade deadline, but already he was great. He's got a league-best 2.27 ERA over his 26 total starts in 2021, with a 0.857 WHIP, 219 strikeouts to 33 walks (6.36 K/BB). His workload is also a little lower, but he leads the league with 5.8 hits per nine innings and an ERA+ of 178, plus 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Zach Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (+550)

Milwaukee got a good look at Wheeler on Labor Day, and it wasn't pretty for the Brewers. He's got three complete games this year (two shutouts) and a 2.91 ERA in 188⅔ innings. His 217 strikeouts (to 40 walks, good for a 5.43 K/BB ratio) lead the league, and he also has a 1.081 WHIP. In terms of volume, he's got the other candidates beat, and with his team scratching and clawing for a playoff spot, one could envision some late-season heroics moving him up in the pecking order. Wheeler was probably closer to the front of this conversation prior to August, when he allowed 23 earned runs in 37 innings (4.81 ERA).

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (+650)

Woodruff had a shaky outing against the Phillies on Monday and has been a little up-and-down lately, but his previous two included the allowance of one earned run in 12 innings. Overall this year, he's got a 2.48 ERA in 163⅓ innings, 0.967 WHIP and 191 strikeouts to 41 walks (4.66 K/BB). He's allowed 17 home runs, but then again, Scherzer has allowed 20 and Buehler 17.

Others: Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants (+2200); Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (+6600)

Could it be a split vote?

With Burnes, Woodruff and even Peralta in the conversation, there's always a concern about "vote splitting," though common sense would suggest this would be less of a concern than the MVP, which ostensibly gauges "value" and might factor in the proximity of additional talented teammates.

In 2019, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were teammates in Houston and combined to claim every first-place vote, though they simply wound up first and second in the Cy Young vote. Scherzer won in 2017 even though Washington teammate Stephen Strasburg had very similar numbers (and took third in the voting), and Corey Kluber won the same year in the American League with teammate Carlos Carrasco taking fourth. 

Although, in 2016, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs took second and third with better ERAs than Scherzer, who won the award — though Scherzer had better overall numbers and snatched up 25 of the 30 first-place votes. In 2015, Zack Greinke of the Dodgers took second and teammate Clayton Kershaw third while Jake Arrieta of the Cubs won the award, and that one was closer, with Arrieta getting 17 first-place votes and Greinke getting 10, with Kershaw three. It seems at least possible Greinke could have won that year under different circumstances.

With Burnes seeming like the clear-cut top Brewers choice, it doesn't feel like a situation where the Brewers will rob votes from each other.

According to SportsBettingDime, the odds shape up like this:

Buehler, +100

Burnes, +170

Woodruff, +645

Wheeler, +725

Scherzer, +1300

Gausman, +2400

Peralta, +9000

According to OddsShark (as of Sept. 2):

Buehler, -150

Burnes, +250

Woodruff, +600

Wheeler, +1100

Scherzer, +1200

Gausman, +2500

JR Radcliffe can be reached at (262) 361-9141 or jradcliffe@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JRRadcliffe.