David Canfield: There are a few major films left to premiere, but if recent Academy history tells us anything, it’s that a good chunk of the 2022 Oscar nominees will have screened here at the Telluride Film Festival. Certainly, studios are hoping for as much—just look at Neon kicking off the Kristen Stewart best-actress Spencer campaign with a buzzy reception, or the trio of starry Netflix events launching their top contenders. We have conceivable front-runners, a long line of potential nominations, and some intriguing spoilers now in the conversation. Is the race clear yet? Of course not. But this was a glorious weekend of moviegoing, with the general atmosphere being one of exuberance between stars, studios, industry folks, and journalists all mingling for the first time in…a long time. (So much aimless mountain gazing!) It was hard not to get excited.
All of us on the ground have been going back and forth this long weekend about what we loved, didn’t love, and believe can go the distance this season. As I see it, a kind of classic arthouse/crowd-pleaser split emerged in terms of the top two contenders: The Power of the Dog, with Jane Campion strongly positioned for best director, and King Richard, which even beyond best-actor candidate Will Smith should not be underestimated. Rebecca, we’re both fans of these two titles—do you agree they’re the big breakouts? What else popped for you?
Rebecca Ford: Yes, I definitely think you’ve named the two films that seem to be earning the most praise from everyone I’ve run into on the ground, from regular festivalgoers to industry insiders, studio execs, and publicists. One of my favorite things to do at festivals is to ask executives what films they loved that weren’t theirs and I will say several mentioned King Richard. It seems like a lock for Will to get that best-actor nomination but I agree that supporting-actress Aunjanue Ellis will likely be in the conversation as well.
The other films that I think popped the most would be Spencer, Belfast, and C’mon C’mon, but those reactions have been much more polarizing. Some people loved them, while others seemed extremely disappointed. Even if the films weren’t universally beloved, they each had acting performances that most festgoers found impressive. Kristen Stewart in Spencer and Caitriona Balfe in Belfast were especially memorable. And both Joaquin Phoenix and Gaby Hoffmann delivered thoughtful performances in C’mon C’mon. Richard, what stood out the most to you?
Richard Lawson: I know such swaggering certainty is poor form—and can prove embarrassing later—so I tried to hold my tongue about my boldest Telluride prediction for as long as I could. I think I lasted about an hour. So I’ll say it again here: Will Smith is gonna win that Oscar. I know, I know, it’s so early, and the last movie about tennis that premiered at Telluride—Battle of the Sexes—sputtered out as it made its way down from the mountains. But Smith’s performance in King Richard is made of sturdier stock, I think. It’s a thorough, and thoroughly compelling, act of becoming, incorporating humor and pathos in deft calibration. And it’s in service of a story that’s uplifting but ever cognizant of the sobering and timely politics surrounding it. I just think the Smith campaign has all the necessary components to make it successful—except, of course, Smith himself. The actor didn’t make the trek to Telluride to shake hands and kiss babies, which certainly would have helped the movie’s cause. Still, all that chatter in line and at cocktail parties suggests to me that Smith has plenty of well-connected support even without his presence. Sure, the ubiquitous Benedict Cumberbatch got raves for great work in Power of the Dog, but unless there was a post-credits scene I missed, his secretive cowboy doesn’t teach two future beloved sports heroes how to play tennis.
From that rising contender to a now fully faded one, in my view: The French Dispatch. Though Wes Anderson’s omnibus film was warmly received at Cannes (though, ahem, not by all), it seemed to fall completely flat at Telluride. It was one of the so-called “secret screenings,” a title quietly added to the lineup during the weekend as a little surprise. Badge holders leapt at the opportunity to see Anderson’s star-studded latest, but if my various conversations around town were any indication, they all left the theater pretty underwhelmed.
I gotta say, I detected some of that same sense of anticlimax when our screening of Spencer concluded. The applause was tepid, the energy subdued. I wonder if that movie is destined to be adored by those predisposed to loving it, but rejected or maybe just ignored by everyone else. Neon might have to be a bit more aggressive in their campaigning than originally planned. That’s my hunch, anyway. David or Rebecca, do you have any fearless forecasts for how things might play out in the coming months, for Spencer or anything else we saw? Could C’mon C’mon be a front-runner in the Academy’s newest category, Best Movie That Made Richard Weep in a Park in Colorado?
Canfield: It’s not fearless so much as common sense to say that the best-actress race got packed pretty quickly this past week. At the front of the pack seems to be Spencer’s Kristen Stewart, even if that film doesn’t go the distance otherwise (which, Richard, I agree could be the case—critics love this one a lot more than several industry insiders I spoke with about the film). Then there’s The Lost Daughter’s Olivia Colman, pretty flawless in a film that played extremely well in Telluride, and Parallel Mothers’ Penélope Cruz, who wowed Venice and will next hit the New York Film Festival. Belfast’s Balfe, very much best in show in Kenneth Branagh’s memory film, is toeing between lead and supporting, as I hear is King Richard’s Ellis. Even though their performances aren’t the total tours de force those aforementioned three are, as Steven Yeun proved with Minari last year, doing great work in a major best-picture player can sometimes be enough.
Over in actor, I’ll answer your C’mon C’mon call, Richard, since I was a mess after that one too. (Should we compare notes on which scenes made us cry?) It’s the latest Mike Mills film, after 20th Century Women and Beginners) to exit the fests with critical acclaim and generally positive response—though I wonder if it resonates enough to emerge as an overall player, since it’ll need to: Joaquin Phoenix’s brilliant but subtle turn isn’t the kind that will pop to the Academy without an overall embrace of the film. (Gaby Hoffmann may have a bit better luck; she’s terrific in support and was talked up quite a bit in Telluride.) The same may not be true of Cyrano, earning more mixed reviews but with a big, widely liked Peter Dinklage performance at its center. He could be a solo breakout. But again, other than Smith and likely Cumberbatch, there’s not another slam-dunk nomination for lead actor to be found in this festival’s group.
My fearless prediction, right now, is that Jane Campion will win the Oscar for best director. The combination of Power’s acclaim, her narrative, Netflix’s campaign might, and the way the film is already playing to directors (who love it) paves a very clear path. But I’d love to talk more about other big breakouts, like Branagh’s Belfast, not so much a hit with critics as audiences, and Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, a rich but thorny debut generating raves. Rebecca, are either of these a case of festival overhype? Are the movies too small? Or are these two actor-directors headed for a big awards season?
Ford: I am sure months from now we’ll look back at a few of these predictions and giggle at what we thought would happen. Festival overhype does have a way of clouding these things. But the pair you just mentioned—Branagh and Gyllenhaal—had a lot going for them. As actor-directors, they are very good at working a room and navigating press interviews. Charm can be a not-so-secret weapon of awards season. Branagh’s film is his Roma, inspired by his own childhood in Belfast, which differs greatly from the work he’s directed before. I really enjoyed the film, and I do think with the right campaign it could be a contender. And I’d say Gyllenhaal’s movie overperformed at Telluride. I heard the phrase “that did not seem like a first film” used several times by festgoers who were describing The Lost Daughter to me—a very high compliment, indeed.
I think we’ve touched on all the biggest splashes from the festival, so I wanted to point out a couple films that popped at Telluride in the documentary category. The first is Flee, the animated documentary, which first played at Sundance (where Neon acquired it) and seemed to find an even stronger following here. I think I heard someone mention it at every line I stood in and event I attended. And the second is The Rescue, from Free Solo Oscar winners Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin. The gripping documentary about the 2018 Thai cave rescue was a big hit, and the stars of the film—that is, Rick Stanton and Mitch Torrel, who were key in rescuing the trapped boys—were surrounded by admirers after the screening that were as eager to meet them as any celebrity at the festival. If I was to make a fearless prediction, it would be that we’ll see Vasarhelyi and Chin back on the nominee, and maybe even winner, list.
I think we’ve hit on a lot of the highlights at this point, but do either of you have any last-call predictions to make based on what we’ve seen over the past few days here on the ground in Colorado?
Lawson: I’m so glad you mentioned Flee, Rebecca, because it’s such a powerful, tragically relevant piece of filmmaking and storytelling. I too heard a lot of people talking about it at Telluride—way more than I did online during the virtual Sundance—a forceful reminder that in-person film festivals have a unique power. Which isn’t to say the virtual festivals should go away once COVID has finally been beaten back; for one thing, they allow many more people to access these films, people who can’t afford to travel or can’t make the trip for other reasons, like having a disability.
That fraught industry topic is something we’ll keep revisiting, I suspect, as the delta variant rages and viewing habits and preferences continue to change. Telluride—which required full vaccination for attendees, while Netflix checked negative test results at the door for their events—didn’t have a virtual component. There was much gushing throughout the weekend about how good it was to be back together, watching movies as they were meant to be. And it was good! But many less privileged people are able to look forward to participating in the half-virtual/half-IRL Toronto International Film Festival, which kicks off this week.
What was I talking about? Oh, right, Flee, which is great, and is a strong contender in a hat trick of categories: doc, international feature, and animated. I’d love to see it recognized in all three. And while we’re predicting, I could see it winning in at least one. It would be a particularly exciting victory in animated, which usually goes to familiar kids programming.
To close things out—and to finally really get to your prompt, Rebecca—I’d say my last Telluride prediction isn’t one for this year, but for maybe five or so years hence. Watching Kelvin Harrison Jr. sing so sweetly (and seductively) and beam with matinee idol glow in Cyrano, I thought to myself that he will probably have an Oscar before too long. He is a true multi-talent movie star.
I also wonder about young Woody Norman from C’mon C’mon. My favorite bit to do at this year’s various evening mixers was to shock people with the fact that Norman, who so convincingly plays an American in Mills’s lovely and naturalistic film, is actually British. Everyone I told was as shocked as I was when I found out days earlier. That a kid as limited in years as Norman figured out the accent game as well as he did should put some much older actors (cough, Cumberbatch, cough) attempting their own linguistic feats to mild shame.
Norman’s country of origin was one of the many happy surprises, little and big, that defined this year’s festival for me. Over this rainy-then-lovely Labor Day weekend, cinema’s capacity for discovery and revelation was almost as undeniable as those craggy peaks surrounding us. It really was all quite a view.
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