SPORTS BETTING

New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, expert picks and prediction

Joe Williams
Sportsbook Wire

The New York Mets (69-69) and Miami Marlins (57-80) play the opener of a three-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Mets at Marlinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 through 28 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed three earned runs, four hits and a walk with five strikeouts across 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Marlins last time out Thursday.
  • Has lasted at least five innings in each of his past three outings, and he has allowed just two home runs across the past 17 1/3 IP during the span.

Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 through 10 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed three earned runs, seven hits and no walks with two strikeouts across four innings for his first major-league loss at Citi Field against the Mets last time out Aug. 31.
  • Has served up three homers in just 10 1/3 IP through his two major-league starts so far.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The METS (-175) have alternated wins and losses in the past four outings. The last time the Mets faced the Marlins (+140) with Carrasco on the bump, it also resulted in a 4-3 win in Flushing. He has pitched well since returning to the team, and each of his past three outings have been one-run games. Look for another tight affair.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The METS -1.5 (+100) are worth a small-unit play in this road series opener. They outscored the Marlins +1.5 (-120) 7-4 in a quick two-game sweep Aug. 31-Sept. 2. New York and Miami are just 6-6 against each other, so go lightly. But take a chance on the visitors working against a guy making just his third-career start.

Over/Under (O/U)

Play UNDER 7.5 (-105). The Under has cashed in five straight series openers for the Mets, while going 11-4-1 in the past 16 games on the road.

The Under is also 6-1 across the past seven for the Marlins against winning teams, too, while cashing in five of the previous six home games. Like the Marlins, the Under is 4-1 in the past five series openers, too.

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