RFA Profile: Rasmus Dahlin

Despite the dip in production last season, Dahlin has shown himself to be a capable offensive blueliner already with a pair of 40-point seasons under his belt. He’s not going to be at the level of someone like Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes offensively but the 21-year-old has already shown himself to be above average at that end of the ice.

But what about his play in his own end? That hasn’t progressed anywhere near as well, and part of the reason his ATOI hasn’t jumped up much at all since his rookie season is that Dahlin still doesn’t kill penalties. His in-zone play under Ralph Krueger left a lot to be desired, although there was some improvement following the coaching change to Don Granato. Offensive numbers drive contract negotiations, but Dahlin can’t command top dollar since he isn’t as well-rounded as others around the league are, and some of his potential contractual comparables were at the time of signing.

That might seemingly push Dahlin toward a short-term deal, giving him a chance to improve defensively and bounce back offensively while getting arbitration rights along the way. Buffalo has shown a willingness to do that in the past, although the end results haven’t been pretty with recent examples of that approach (Sam Reinhart and Linus Ullmark) now playing on other teams. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sabres try for a long-term pact here even if it might carry a little bit of risk.

Statistics

2020-21: 56 GP, 5-18-23, -36, 26 PIMS, 115 shots, 21:36 ATOI
Career: 197 GP, 18-89-107, -56, 98 PIMS, 382 shots, 20:44 ATOI

Comparables

Zach Werenski (Columbus) – While Werenski didn’t take a big step forward in his platform year, he didn’t take a step back either. The offensive numbers are somewhat similar from a per-game perspective, although Werenski was better in his own end then compared to Dahlin now. Even so, this would likely represent the low end of what a bridge deal would cost as Dahlin’s draft status gives him a leg up on most of the options here.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 11-33-44, -12, 18 PIMS, 168 shots, 22:54 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 237 GP, 38-90-128, +13, 48 PIMS, 563 shots, 22:08 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $15 million
Cap Hit Percentage: 6.14%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

As this contract was basically the top standard, there aren’t really other viable comparable players for bridge deals. Five million dollars would be the starting point on a bridge contract with anything over two years exceeding this price tag quickly. Accordingly, let’s now look at longer-term options.

Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia) – Like Dahlin, Provorov entered his platform season as someone looking primed to take a big step forward but ultimately underachieved, leading to some questions as to whether a bridge deal would come his way. He was more of a No. 1 than Dahlin has been, which could be a factor.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 7-19-26, -16, 32 PIMS, 145 shots, 25:07 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 246 GP, 30-67-97, -6, 86 PIMS, 509 shots, 23:45 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $40.5 million
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Aaron Ekblad (Florida) – For years, this was the top standard that any young blueliner would want to use as a comparable and like Dahlin, he’s a No. 1 pick. Ekblad’s better defensive game looms large here, so from a comparable standpoint, this one is a little weaker, but it’s possible Dahlin still gets something like that (more on why that could be the case shortly).

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 10-11-21, -23, 58 PIMS, 225 shots, 21:28 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 227 GP, 37-59-96, +7, 131 PIMS, 577 shots, 21:40 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $60 million
Cap Hit Percentage: 10.27%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $66.96 million ($8.37 million AAV)

Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) – After acquiring Hamilton from Boston, Calgary quickly inked him to the contract that he just wrapped up before signing with New Jersey. The development path was the opposite of what Dahlin’s route has been so far (his was a slow start and annual improvement) but the overall numbers are relatively close.

Platform Year Stats: 72 GP, 10-32-42, -3, 41 PIMS, 188 shots, 21:20 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 178 GP, 22-61-83, +23, 95 PIMS, 385 shots, 19:32 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $34.5 million
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.05%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $39.365 million ($6.56 million AAV)

Tyler Myers (Buffalo) – Let’s use another Sabres deal as the final comparable.  Myers’ first two seasons were a lot better than his third year (and as it turns out, those two remain his top years offensively) so at the time, Buffalo was thinking it had a core two-way player on its hands. Of course, it didn’t work out that way in the end but the numbers are somewhat comparable to Dahlin’s so far.

Platform Year Stats: 55 GP, 8-15-23, +5, 33 PIMS, 84 shots, 22:29 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 217 GP, 29-79-108, +18, 105 PIMS, 310 shots, 22:57 ATOI
Contract: Seven years, $38.5 million
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.55%
Current Equivalent: Seven years, $48.778 million ($6.968 million AAV)

Projected contract

In terms of fits for a long-term deal, Dahlin’s comparables appear to be in the high-$6 million range. But if that’s the baseline for that type of contract, his camp would argue that a bridge contract would be the better way to go and rightfully so. If Buffalo wants to buy out a couple of UFA years, it will need to go a bit higher, perhaps around the $7.5 million range to persuade Dahlin to go that route; a max-term (eight-year) deal could push it closer to $8 million. Otherwise, a bridge contract starting at more than $5 million for an AAV (one that is back-loaded to yield a higher qualifying offer) could very well wind up being the outcome here.