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Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds odds, expert picks and prediction

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The Detroit Tigers (64-73) face off with the Cincinnati Reds (73-64) at Great American Ball Park Sunday in the finale of their three-game interleague series. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match for the Tigers and Reds as Detroit won Friday's game 15-5 and Cincinnati evened the set with a 7-4 victory Saturday.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Casey Mize is Detroit's projected starter. He is 7-7 with a 3.59 ERA (135 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K Monday against the Minnesota Twins.
  • 2021 road stats: 4-3 with a 3.50 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.09 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across 13 starts.

RHP Luis Castillo is on the hill for the Reds. He is 7-14 with a 4.30 ERA (157 IP, 75 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • 2021 home stats: 5-6 with a 3.57 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.38 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB over 14 starts.

Tigers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Reds -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-112) | Reds -1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Tigers 5, Red 4

Money line (ML)

Slight "LEAN" to the TIGERS (+180) for a tiny wager because there's some value in Detroit's run line and there's a solid chance the Tigers could steal this game outright.

Detroit is 7-5 as a road underdog when Mize gets the start with a plus-48.9% return on investment (ROI). Whereas Cincy is just 10-18 straight up in games Castillo starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the TIGERS +1.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of Detroit's money line. The Tigers are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs with Mize starting and have a plus-29.4% ROI in those spots. The Reds are 4-6 ATS as home favorites with Castillo starting and have a minus-13.8% ROI.

Detroit is also 9-5 ATS in interleague games and 34-30 ATS as a road underdog while Cincinnati is 6-11 ATS in interleague games.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Under 8.5 (-102) since both the "pros" and "joes" are backing the Under in the early-morning action report, according to Pregame.com, even though there are several pro-Over trends.

I'd assume this is "sharp" action because how many recreational bettors are wagering on Tigers-Reds in September?

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