The San Diego Padres (71-63) host the Houston Astros (78-55) Friday for the start of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Padres lead 2-1.
RHP Jose Urquidy gets the nod for the Astros. Urquidy is 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 14 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 1 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 0 K in Houston’s 13-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles June 29.
- 2021 road splits: 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB in seven starts.
RHP Jake Arrieta is San Diego’s projected starter. Arrieta is 5-12 with a 7.13 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 71 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 21 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K Aug.18 at the Colorado Rockies.
Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:29 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+115) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Astros 6, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the ASTROS (-135) for 1 unit even though it’s awfully square. We are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting market as nearly 90% of the action is on Houston’s money line according to pregame.com. However, the Astros have been steamed down from a -145 consensus favorite to the current price.
Houston has a significant edge in the pitching and hitting departments. Arrieta’s pitching peripherals are as scary as his basic numbers and Houston’s bullpen has been top-5 unit across several advanced pitching metrics since the All-Star Game.
Arrieta grades in the 13th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K%, chase and whiff rates.
Finally, Houston’s lineup has raked all season long whereas San Diego’s has been up-and-down throughout the season and has the lowest WAR and wRC+ over the past 14 days.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Astros -1.5 (+115) needs to be north of +140 for me to take a stab considering the Padres are 12-3 ATS in interleague games. Also, Urquidy making his first start since late June is another reason to stay away from Houston’s run line before seeing if he returns to his pre-injury form.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-130) for a half unit because Arrieta’s teams are 5-14-2 O/U despite his sky-high ERA and the Padres are 1-6-1 O/U as a home underdog.
Moreover, San Diego’s bullpen is a top-notch unit that can keep Houston from piling onto whatever lead it gets vs. Arrieta, and the Padres hitting has been dreadful recently.
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