The Atlanta Braves (70-62) and Colorado Rockies (61-72) commence a four-game series Thursday at Coors Field. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Braves RHP Touki Toussaint (3-2, 3.60 ERA) makes his eighth start in his ninth game. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 40 IP.
- Sports an xERA nearly a full run higher than his surface number while ranking in the bottom third percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
- Throws breaking balls over 75% of the time and has been tagged for an 18.9% HR/FB rate.
Rockies RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.08 ERA) makes his 17th start and his 22nd appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 94 2/3 IP.
- Making his fourth start and fifth appearance of the second half; allowed 14 ER over 12 IP across his previous three starts.
- Has the fifth-highest ERA, and sixth-lowest K-BB%, of any pitcher with at least 90 IP.
Braves at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.
- Money line: Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Rockies +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-110) | Rockies +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 12.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Rockies 6, Braves 5
Money line (ML)
The Braves enter Thursday’s contest on a three-game losing skid after a trip to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers, and things don’t get a lot easier with a visit to Colorado. The Rockies have baseball’s second-best home record at 43-22, despite their abysmal overall record.
Having Gonzalez on the mound doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence here, but Toussaint is also pitching well beyond his abilities and a heavy breaking ball arsenal may lend itself to disaster at Coors Field if a few of them are left hanging.
If this one ends up in the hands of the bullpens sooner than later that doesn’t hurt the Rockies, either. Colorado’s relievers rank better than Atlanta’s in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% over the second half of the season.
Consider a partial-unit play on the home side. Take the ROCKIES (+130).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Oddsmakers have been disrespecting the Rockies on their home turf all season. Colorado’s 64.6% cover rate at home is the league’s only mark above 60%, and that number jumps to 71.4% when the Rockies are home underdogs on the strength of a 25-10 ATS record.
The Braves are no slouches on the road, but given a belief the Rockies can get this done on the money line, I’m going to back them on the run line as well.
The value is great here for a team that performs well at home and if you’re not comfortable with them winning outright then getting an extra run and a half of insurance might be what you’re after.
BACK COLORADO +1.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
Generally, I’d “lean” to an Under when I see a total as high as 12.5. Coors Field has a well-deserved reputation as a great ballpark for hitters but totals are often inflated multiple runs there and it has played mostly to the Under this season.
However, this pitching matchup doesn’t appeal to me in taking an Under. I’m going to go ahead and PASS on the O/U.
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