Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

The Boston Red Sox (76-59) and Tampa Bay Rays (84-49) wrap up a four-game set Thursday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Rays lead 9-6

Boston and LHP Chris Sale snapped Tampa Bay's nine-game win streak with a 3-2 victory Wednesday.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to start for Boston in the series finale. He is 10-7 with a 5.12 ERA (126 2/3 IP, 72 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 25 starts this season.

• Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 4-3 victory at Cleveland Indians Friday
• Career vs. Rays: 1-3, 5.15 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 11 starts
• 2021 vs. Rays: 0-0, 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 15 K in two starts with Red Sox going 1-1

Rookie LHP Shane McClanahan is the Rays' projected starter. He is 9-4 with a 3.59 ERA (100 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 20 starts.

• Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-3 win at Baltimore Orioles Friday
• Career vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in one start, a 3-2 home win Aug. 1

Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+122)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Rays 6, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

BACK TAMPA BAY (- 175) to WIN ONE UNIT.

McClanahan has won his last five starts behind a 2.76 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 9 ER) and 7.6 runs per game from the Rays offense.

Boston's Rodriguez is 1-1 in his last two outings, yielding 8 hits in each start with a combined 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER).

Boston is also without cleanup hitter SS Xander Bogaerts (.298, 20 HR, 70 RBI), who was pulled in the second inning of Tuesday's game because of a positive COVID-19 test.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 13-2 in its last 15 games and features the American League's second-best home record at 43-24.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ATS records: Red Sox 69-66 | Rays 77-56

BET a HALF UNIT on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (+ 122).

The Rays, who have the second-best ATS record in the majors, are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 12-3 in their last 15. They're also 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings vs. Boston.

In McClanahan's last four starts, they've won by scores of 6-3, 7-2, 10-4 and 12-3.

The Rays are basically my STRONGEST PLAY - 1½ times your usual wager - between the ML and ATS suggestions.

Over/Under (O/U)

O/U records: Red Sox 61-71-3 | Rays 73-55-5

BET OVER 7.5 (- 122) to WIN a HALF UNIT.

The Rays are the second-best Over team in baseball and the Over is 10-5 in the 15 head-to-head meetings this season.

Be warned. The Over is 3-3 in Rodriguez's last six starts, and 2-2-1 in McClanahan's last five trips to the hill.

If the line climbs to 8, this is a PASS.

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