Tropical Storm Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane this week with top winds reaching up to 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
By Thursday night, Larry’s maximum sustained winds are forecast to be within Category 1 hurricane strength, at about 85 mph. Thereafter, its winds are expected to intensify rapidly to 120 mph, forecasters said.
Larry is expected to be a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, by Friday, the hurricane center said.
Larry formed overnight Tuesday into Wednesday from a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It’s coalescing in an area where storms tend to form during peak season, which runs mid-August through October.
It’s likely to take a path west to west-northwest over the central Atlantic before turning northwest this weekend, according to the hurricane center’s 5-day forecast outlook. Beyond that, it’s too early to tell where it may head.
Forecasters say that conditions support rapid development.
Located roughly 455 miles off the west coast of Africa as of 11 p.m. Wednesday, Larry was moving at 21 mph with top winds of 70 mph. Its tropical-storm-force winds extended out up to 70 miles from its center.
With the formation of Larry, a total of seven named storms have formed in the Atlantic between Aug. 10 and Sept. 1 this year. That ties the record established in 2011, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.
And this is the sixth year to have 12 named storms by Sept. 1, joining 2020, 2012, 2011, 2005 and 1995, Klotzbach said.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Larry could become one of the season’s longest-lived tropical systems due to favorable environmental conditions and the fact that Larry will travel across the open waters of the Atlantic for quite a distance without interaction with land, for now.
Some models have Larry existing at least 10 days, ranging anywhere from a hurricane to a tropical storm or a tropical depression.
“I doubt it would get all the way to two weeks,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Don Harrigan, “but it would be between 10 and 14 days.”
The season’s pace is running “well above average,” according to AccuWeather. “Typically, the 12th named system and second major hurricane does not occur for another five weeks, or in early October.”
The number of expected major hurricanes this season is three to five, according to the forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
If Larry develops into a major hurricane as forecast, it would be the third of the season, along with Grace, a Category 3, and Ida, a Category 4.
There are only five years in the satellite era, which began in 1966, that had three major hurricanes by Sept. 4: 2008, 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1969, Klotzbach tweeted.
As of Sept. 1, there have been 12 named storms and four hurricanes, two of which have been major hurricanes.
NOAA’s forecast predicts 7 to 10 hurricanes and 15 to 21 named storms this Atlantic season, which means those with winds speeds of at least 39 mph.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure has emerged in the southern Caribbean Sea. It’s forecast to move over the western Caribbean Sea toward Central America’s east coast, and could gain some strength over the warm open water. Any additional development is unlikely once it moves over land in Central America and Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula.
And, Tropical Storm Kate became a remnant low and dissipated Wednesday, according to the hurricane center.
The next named storm to form would be Mindy.
