To understand the sizable hole that Kiefer Ravena's absence will leave in NLEX's roster for a good part of the immediate future, it's good to contextualize what he brings to the table in the first place, and why it will take a collaborative effort from everyone to replace the 27-year-old guard's production.
Raw numbers fall short in describing the Japan-bound Ravena's stability in shot creation and playmaking in the first four games of the 2021 PBA Philippine Cup, where he has averaged 15.8 points, 6.5 assists (second-best), 3.8 rebounds, and 1.8 steals (tied for sixth) in just under 30 minutes for the Road Warriors (2-2). Listing everything in detail will take up a lot of space here, so we'll just highlight the most important aspects. The former Ateneo star:
- is shooting 42.3 percent on 3s, first among 11 players firing more than six a game;
- is turning the ball over just 13.3 percent of the time, the second-lowest turnover percentage among all top-10 assist leaders, and;
- ranks among the leaders in opportunities created for his teammates (first), estimated volume of passes (second), percentage of shots assisted to teammates (third), and passing efficiency (fifth), per multiple advanced metrics.
Losing Ravena to an overseas commitment probably isn't something the Road Warriors are happy about, to say the least.
But saying NLEX is in deep trouble just because Ravena is gone more or less equates to believing that the team lacks players capable of picking up the slack - a notion that simply isn't true, and one that coach Yeng Guiao himself would refute.
The Road Warriors still employ an up-tempo, modernized offense where great pieces across the roster can thrive. Barring significant setbacks - and once the team actually goes through the process of adjusting to life without Ravena - NLEX will probably come out fine and still be competitive to a certain degree.
Here's a peek at what's working (and what's not) right now for NLEX.
(Editor's note: Numbers are courtesy of Stats by Ryan on DribbleMedia.com, a collection of advanced stats for the PBA that uses up-to-date totals and formulas from both NBA.com/Stats and Basketball Reference, as well as other independent hoops websites.)
The Good: Kevin Alas' stock continues to rise
Guiao has consistently said in interviews that Alas won't be doing more heavy lifting once Ravena leaves, but there's a reason why that train of thought exists - and most of that thinking roots from the balance that the former Letran star has flashed in 2020 and in this conference, where he is averaging 18.5 points (fourth) on 45.8/33.3/85.7 shooting splits, 4.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals (tied for sixth) in just 29.1 minutes.
The biggest improvement has been in his shooting, as Alas is attempting the most 3s in his career at 6.0 a game on what would be a career-high clip if he sustains it. He has been efficient; among the top-10 scorers, his 56.8 true shooting percentage - a measure of total shooting efficiency that accounts for field goals, three-pointers, and free throws - currently ranks second.
"Of course we know he can score, but he's just been more conscious of taking shots," Guiao explained. "He has been consistent with shooting the three-point shot this conference. We know him as a slasher, and most teams prepare for him as a penetrator, but I think he's proven when he gets open for the 3, he can make it."
He's also grown more as a passer out of the team's primary pick-and-roll sets, as Guiao says Alas "has mastered the parameters of decision-making in that action." The numbers support the idea; aside from averaging a career-best in assists, the 29-year-old guard ranks fifth in box creation, an estimate of opportunities a player creates for his teammates based on passing, playmaking, scoring, and shooting; and seventh in passing production, a measure of passing volume.
A lot of these passes have been leading to easy baskets for his teammates, as Alas is assisting on 27.6 percent of other NLEX player's field goals, a top-13 mark, all while showing a lot of poise against traps, hedges, and every other defensive coverage in between.
"He's just matured. He's gotten a better understanding of his role in the team that he has to create not only for himself, but also for his teammates. He's found ways to do that - to throw off the defense and find the open people, or if the defense doesn't pay him enough attention, score on his own," Guiao noted.
"I think it's just the decision-making, the efficiency in judgment, his maturity as a player. I don't think I can take much credit for that because that's not really much from coaching. It's really much of his improvement as a player who has matured," he furthered.
Alas is a big reason why the offense has thrived yet again. Last year's top offensive team has continued to churn out the points in the 2021 edition of the All-Filipino Conference, where NLEX is bannering a 105.2 offensive rating (second-best). The Road Warriors are also second in field goal percentage at 41.5, and third in 3s at 31.9 percent while draining the most on a per-game basis (11.3).
The egalitarian NLEX system has not generated a lot of assists yet beyond Ravena and Alas - only 56.4 percent of the team's shots are assisted this conference, which ranks eighth - but Guiao believes things will normalize to figures from the last four conferences, where the team has not ranked below sixth in that department.
"There's always a conscious effort to try to get scoring opportunities out of our ball movement. It's a stat that we will continue to look for improvement on, but I'm confident that as the tournament goes on, we should settle down to our normal numbers in terms of scoring off of our passing," Guiao expounded.
The Not-So-Good: Defense
NLEX's defense continues to be the weak point, as the team's 101 defensive rating currently sits at 10th. Teams are shooting 40.1 percent from the field - a number that would have been fine in any other conference, but one that stands as the third-worst figure today. The team doesn't get a lot of steals and blocks (both 11th), either.
The lack of an imposing big man continues to be the root of these problems. It reflects heavily on film, but more so on paper, as NLEX continues to get outrebounded on a nightly basis and allows teams to score a league-high 17.5 points on second-chance opportunities.
"I think our biggest weakness is defending the middle. The loss of Poy Erram [in 2020] was a huge loss, because we don't have a shot-blocker, a big man who can intimidate or change shots," Guiao lamented.
"I'm not too worried about our matchups with our guards. I'm worried about the inside, where there are higher percentage shots for our opponents," he continued. "It's just not easy to solve because it's a size problem in the middle."
What to Watch: Raul Soyud and Jericho Cruz
The unrelenting Soyud is the closest thing to an inside force that NLEX has at the moment. He hasn't been too shabby, logging 8.8 points on 60 percent shooting, 7.8 rebounds and 1.0 assists in just 25 minutes.
Soyud has such a nice touch around the basket, and he rates as the best offensive rebounder in the league today, grabbing 18.2 percent of available boards on that end to prevent NLEX from sinking any further in that department.
"One thing about Raul is he's relentless," said Guiao. "He's improving his outside shot, he's improved his finishing around the basket, he's improved his defense, he's made his body stronger. That's all a credit to his determination. And he knows that this is his break because we don't have an elite big man who can dominate."
Multiple guards on the roster will divvy up the minutes once Ravena departs for Japan, but the biggest beneficiary will undoubtedly be Cruz, who displayed incredible efficiency last season by ranking seventh among qualified players in terms of true shooting percentage (62.8 TS%) while averaging 13.2 points per game.
Cruz has yet to pick up the pace this conference (9.3 points, 50.3 TS% and just 23.1 percent on 3s), but Guiao trusts his ward will find his groove sooner or later.
"I think with the absence of Kiefer, Jericho is the guy that will benefit the most, or is the guy who will need to step up the most," he expressed. "If Kiefer's getting close to 30 minutes a game, Jericho's going to get a substantial chunk of that. If we're going to rank the guys who we're hoping to step up, I think he'll be on top of the list."