Tropics watch: Hurricane Ida enters Gulf of Mexico, bringing storm surge, hurricane warnings
Cheryl McCloudHurricane Ida continued to strengthen Friday, with winds holding steady at 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Most models have Ida moving toward a Louisiana landfall over the weekend at or near major hurricane strength. Projected wind speed has increased to 140 mph within 48 hours, which would make Ida a highly-dangerous Category 4 storm.
How quickly the system ramps up may determine where it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to AccuWeather.
Ida's impact could be felt from Texas to portions of Florida.
Ida approaching Gulf Coast:Hurricane watches issued for Gulf Coast states as forecasters warn Tropical Storm Ida could be 'strongest storm of the season'
New warnings issued Friday afternoon include a storm surge warning from east of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, a hurricane warning for the coast of Louisiana from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans, and a tropical storm warning for the northern Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border, as well as the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
The Hurricane Center defines "major hurricanes" as Category 3 or higher. Category 3 storms have winds of 111-129 mph and "devastating damage will occur" with storms of that strength.
AccuWeather forecasters are warning residents and businesses from the Texas coast to Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida to closely monitor the Ida's progress since there may be little time to prepare once the system forms, a definitive path develops and the storm strengthens rapidly.
There have been five named systems that have reached land in the U.S. so far this season, but none were hurricanes at the time of landfall, according to AccuWeather.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the Hurricane Center continues to monitor two tropical waves in the Atlantic that could become tropical depressions over the weekend.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 10 p.m. CT Aug. 27:
What's out there and where are they?
Hurricane Ida: Ida is located about 105 miles west of Havana, Cuba and 615 miles southeast of New Orleans.
Tropical wave 1: An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.
How likely are they to strengthen?
Hurricane Ida: Maximum sustained winds are at 80 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while Ida moves over western Cuba this evening.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday.
Tropical wave 1: Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, however, a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. The system is expected to drift eastward through tonight and Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 60 percent.
Tropical wave 2: Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has developed in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, shower and thunderstorm activity is limited near the center of the low. Some additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form Saturday or Saturday night before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward through tonight, then turn northward Saturday.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: high, 80 percent.
Details on Hurricane Ida
- Location: 105 miles west of the western tip of Cuba; 615 miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana; 256 miles south of Naples
- Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
- Movement: northwest at 15 mph
- Pressure: 989 millibars
Who is likely to be impacted?
Hurricane Ida: Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Tropical waves: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves. Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.
Tracking the tropics in real time:
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