It’s been a very dry (and warm) summer across Minnesota with drought settling in across all of the state including a very rare Extreme Drought classification in parts.
Some rain on Monday was a welcome sight for Minnesota. Now it looks like a few more rounds are on the way and should put a decent dent in the rainfall deficit across central Minnesota. WCCO Meteorologist Paul Douglas has a rundown of what to expect for the next few days.
Flood Potential, During an Ongoing Drought:
Wouldn't it be ironic, and somehow fitting for 2021, to go from drought to flood, in the meteorological blink of an eye? Here we are in the midst of the worst drought since 1988 with water restrictions, stress on crops and trees, and parts of northern Minnesota on fire, and yet we're talking about a chance of flash flooding over the next few days. The extremes are trending more extreme over time? Uh, yep.
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Rainfall Potential by Saturday Evening:
Weather models show an active warm front sparking numerous showers and T-storms from Thursday afternoon into Saturday night, and by Sunday many lawns and farms will pick up 2-3" of rain. Even more is possible in a few spots, but there is no way to pinpoint this far in advance who will see the most rain.
Image Above: ECMWF ("Euro") Rainfall Prediction by Saturday Evening
Excessive Rainfall Potential for Thursday:
NOAA has much of Minnesota and Wisconsin under a slight threat of excessive rainfall tomorrow into early Friday, with a potential for flash flooding in some communities.
Street and stream flooding is possible, and I could see a few wet basements from Thursday night into Saturday night.
My sense is that Friday will be the wettest day, especially Friday night as very warm and humid air flows into Minnesota. But if you're heading to the Minnesota State Fair on Thursday I would lug along something waterproof and keep a wary eye on the sky.
Saturday may be a better day for the fair with 80s and more sunshine (late day T-storms still possible) but if you want dry weather consider Sunday, when northwest winds should dry us out and cool us off a bit.
It's Too Early:
I have a pile of leaves in my yard from stressed trees (why should the trees be any different than we are) and the Minnesota DNR has kicked off their Fall Color Finder early, because the drought is creating pockets of color a few weeks earlier than usual. Yes, peak fall color may be muted - and come earlier than most years due to our dry conditions.
That said, I'm cautiously optimistic between Tuesday morning's soaking (1-2") and what is coming up (another 1-4") we could be at least halfway toward recovering from the drought. We are down 8-10" of rain, but I'm hoping many communities will make up half of that deficit by Sunday morning. Fingers crossed.
Take it easy out there, and remember to tell your grand kids someday about the year there were flooding concerns during a drought. Only in Minnesota.
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