After adding over 514,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 34.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 600,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a faster rate. In the past week, there were an average of 20.0 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — an increase from the week prior, when there were an average of 10.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, metro area consists of Orange County, Seminole County, Lake County, and one other county. In the past week, there were an average of 36.7 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Orlando residents, greater than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 35.7 daily new cases per 100,000 Orlando residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Lake County. There were an average of 30.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Lake County during the past week, the least of the four counties in Orlando with available data.

Case growth in the Orlando metro area is relatively uniform at the county level. In Osceola County, for example, there were an average of 40.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Orlando yet relatively in line with the case growth rate in Lake County.

While Lake County has the slowest case growth in the Orlando area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of July 29, there were a total of 9,903.2 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Lake County, the second fewest of the four counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 10,550.2 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Lake County, unemployment peaked at 18.8% in May 2020. As of April 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 5.3%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending July 29. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Florida where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July 29	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July 22	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Lake County	345,867	30.9	30.9	9,903.2	191.7
2	Seminole County	461,402	33.5	32.7	8,654.3	111.8
3	Orange County	1,349,746	38.3	36.5	11,691.2	97.1
4	Osceola County	351,955	40.4	41.0	14,396.2	150.3

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