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Still Hot on Friday

ABC11 Eyewitness News
ABC11 Eyewitness News
 2021-07-29

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A boundary is approaching North Carolina from the north, however the associated 500mb energy is missing the area entirely. As such, dry conditions with just a few passing clouds will continue through tonight.

Dew points begin to decrease to the north of the boundary, but only slightly, as lows struggle to fall below the upper 70s.

A stronger, more noticeable, front will move through the Carolinas on Friday. With hot, humid air in place and plentiful forcing along the front, storms will develop and a few may potentially be strong to severe, with torrential downpours and strong wind gusts being the main threats. The highest chance of severe weather will be just to the south and east of the Triangle, however heavy rain and frequent lightning will be a threat regardless. Temperatures likely reach the low to mid 90s before storms arrive.

Behind the front, a brief but refreshing decrease in humidity will be in store, though modeling disagrees with how well the cooler and less humid air mass can move into the area. The North American Model and the European model have consistently been the driest, bringing dew points into the 50s on Saturday, while other solutions have kept dew points over 60 in the Triangle. Both solutions are plausible. In any case, it will be much more pleasant than recent days, especially when combined with lower temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Unfortunately, this break is likely to be short-lived as the potential is there for a low pressure system to spin up along the boundary on Sunday as it stalls to our south, with additional energy aloft coming southeastward toward the Carolinas. Where any potential low ends up will dictate how wet it may be, and how much sun we can manage to see. Overall it looks like another generally unsettled day with higher humidity back in place as dew points end up back above 70.

The front lingers nearby into Monday which keeps the thunderstorm chances going. The models are also now showing an organized low pushing through the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorm chances holding steady. A trough then lingers over the OH/TN valleys Wednesday into Thursday, and a cut off low may even develop. The front should stall out nearby those days; where it ends up will make a difference in how wet we are, but at least some storm chances are likely. Throughout the Monday to Thursday timeframe, models have been inconsistent on what day will be the wettest, however rain and thunderstorms will remain a threat each day.

Have a great evening!

Big Weather

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