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The case for why the Grizzlies will end up drafting Michigan's Franz Wagner

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Memphis Grizzlies were the first team to make a big trade during the week of the 2021 NBA draft, reportedly moving up to acquire the No. 10 pick in Thursday’s draft.

While early reports from ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman suggest Australian wunderkind Josh Giddey is the presumed favorite for Memphis, I don’t think we should be too sure quite yet. Givony also linked Michigan’s Franz Wagner as a potential target, and to be frank, that’s the name I’d keep an eye on for the Grizzlies.

Back in February, I published a mock draft that projected Wagner would end up playing for Taylor Jenkins on the Grizzlies.

For selfish reasons, it would be pretty fun to say I was able to predict a draft pick that far in advance. However, there was a method to the madness and it involved some analysis from someone who follows the team closer than I ever have.

Shawn Coleman, who writes for SB Nation’s Grizzly Bear Blues, used some brilliant research to identify potential draft targets the Memphis front office might have coveted in the 2020 NBA draft.

Coleman looked at some of the players that Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman has added over the last several years (Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton and John Konchar) to determine what he values in a prospect. Here was his assessment:

“From a qualitative perspective, these players are highly productive and intelligent who play with energy and passion on both ends of the court and display good character and a desire to improve. From a quantitative perspective, these players are efficient, can contribute in a variety of different ways, and can consistently create advantageous opportunities.”

He then reverse-engineered some stats that applied to Clarke, Konchar and Melton to find players that fit similar profiles. The players he targeted were Xavier Tillman, Desmond Bane and Killian Tillie. Memphis landed all three.

Of course, there is a fair chance the Grizzlies deviate from what they have done in previous years. In fact, I’ve even heard as much from folks who spoke to For The Win on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the team.

However, the traits Kleiman values are more than indicative of the kind of versatility Memphis is looking for in its team-building philosophy.

Coleman identified those characteristics as efficient shot selection, added value beyond scoring and defensive playmaking. With that in mind, I did my best to cosplay as a “math guy” and plugged in some numbers. I looked for college basketball players who fit the following criteria:

Efficient Shot Selection – True shooting percentage of 58% or better

Added Value Beyond Scoring: Defensive rebound percentage and assist percentage of 17% or better; turnover percentage lower than 20%

Defensive playmaking: Block percentage above 3% and steal percentage above 2%

Using the incredible filters at BartTorvik.com, these are the results that I found:

Since 2017, there are only seventeen players who met the criteria I listed above. Four of those players (Tillman, Konchar, Clarke and Jontay Porter) played on the Grizzlies this past season.

Three more of those players — Neemias Queta, Cameron Krutwig and Wagner — are eligible for the 2021 NBA draft. Note: Gaige Prim, who also met those thresholds, is using another year of eligibility and will return to Missouri State.

Based on the fact Wagner is projected in that range of where they will be selecting now that they own the rights to the tenth pick in the draft, it’s worth at least having the discussion.

(It is also worth highlighting both Neemias Queta and Cameron Krutwig as potential options for the Grizzlies in the second round or via undrafted free agency but we’ll save that for another time.)

Wagner isn’t a perfect player by any means and his last game of college basketball may have soured his draft stock a bit. He was 1-for-10 from the field in a loss against UCLA that eliminated his Wolverines from the NCAA tournament. He missed two three-pointers in the final quarter, including an airball on a would-be game-winner.

But he is a much more well-rounded prospect than that game would have suggested. His box plus-minus (a catch-all advanced statistic that measures the overall impact on winning a player has for a team) ranked third-best among all underclassmen this past season.

Wagner is also still very young. He played two years of college basketball but he is still younger than several notable freshmen including Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Scottie Barnes and Sharife cooper. Plus, he’s literally growing. On Monday afternoon, he told reporters that he is nearly 6-foot-11, which is significantly taller than what he was listed at Michigan.

I’m also not saying I’m Nostradamus or that the crystal ball indicates Wagner-to-Memphis is a sure thing. Even if this pick ends up being Wagner, Coleman deserves all of the credit here. However, just because early reports indicate the Grizzlies are going with Giddey doesn’t mean we should rule out Wagner quite yet.

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