After adding over 289,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 33.7 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 600,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a faster rate. In the past week, there were an average of 10.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — an increase from the week prior, when there were an average of 4.2 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, metro area consists of Davidson County, Rutherford County, Williamson County, and 10 other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 8.8 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Nashville residents, in line with the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is an increase from the week prior, when there were an average of 3.0 daily new cases per 100,000 Nashville residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Smith County. There were an average of 2.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Smith County during the past week, the least of the 13 counties in Nashville with available data.

Case growth in the Nashville metro area varies widely at the county level. In Sumner County, for example, there were an average of 15.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Nashville and far more than the case growth rate in Smith County.

While Smith County has the slowest case growth in the Nashville area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of July 22, there were a total of 14,265.5 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Smith County, the eighth fewest of the 13 counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 10,391.7 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Smith County, unemployment peaked at 14.2% in April 2020. As of April 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 3.4%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending July 22. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Tennessee where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July 22	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July 15	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Smith County	19,740	2.8	0.2	14,265.5	202.6
2	Dickson County	52,680	4.3	3.6	13,544.0	218.3
3	Macon County	23,842	4.6	0.6	15,434.9	327.2
4	Cheatham County	40,181	5.6	1.4	11,674.7	139.4
5	Rutherford County	315,815	6.0	2.6	13,914.2	142.8
6	Trousdale County	10,231	6.6	0.4	24,846.1	205.3
7	Williamson County	225,389	8.8	2.6	12,806.7	97.2
8	Davidson County	687,488	8.9	2.3	13,234.0	138.9
9	Wilson County	136,666	9.0	2.6	14,277.9	184.4
10	Maury County	91,976	9.2	1.7	15,035.4	193.5
11	Cannon County	14,178	9.6	5.8	13,817.2	225.7
12	Robertson County	70,280	9.7	4.8	14,297.1	200.6
13	Sumner County	183,437	15.3	8.0	13,554.5	195.2

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