Michigan Republicans are casting a wary eye on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, confident the Democrat is beatable in 2022 but unsure they will nominate a standard-bearer who can beat her.
Institutional Republican support is coalescing behind James Craig, former chief of the Detroit Police Department, who is black. Conservative talk show host Tudor Dixon is staking her claim as the candidate who most embodies the legacy of former President Donald Trump and, in fact, is being advised by Susie Wiles, the top strategist for the former president. Wealthy businessman Kevin Rinke isn’t running, yet. But Republicans are higher on him than they are activist Garrett Soldano, who is.
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All of the candidates might have the political chops to oust Whitmer. Over time, the governor’s handling of the coronavirus wore thin with voters, especially amid revelations she violated her own pandemic regulations. But Republicans say Whitmer is formidable. She has pivoted to economic recovery, without much pushback from a Republican field still sorting itself out, and she sports a war chest greater than $10 million after raising more than $14 million since Jan. 1 of this year.
“The longer she’s allowed to do that without resistance from the GOP, the better off she’ll be,” John Sellek, a Republican public relations consultant in Michigan, said Friday.
“It starts and ends with her,” he added, sizing up the dynamics of next year’s governor’s contest. “It’s a referendum on her first term — and that’s because of COVID.”
Whitmer, 49, ended up in hot water, politically, after traveling to Florida to visit her ailing father, in contravention of her recommendation that Michigan residents avoid the Sunshine State due to concerns about contracting the coronavirus and spreading it back home. The governor exacerbated the controversy by changing her story about how the trip was paid for, raising concerns that its financing might have violated state law.
Ultimately, Republicans believe Whitmer’s reelection bid could be haunted by charges of hypocrisy related to whether she followed her own pandemic restrictions on gathering and travel and exhaustion with her reliance on the policy of economic lockdowns to mitigate the spread of the virus. Republican insiders also expect rising crime, education, inflation, and its effect on the cost of household goods, and other kitchen table issues, to loom large in this race.
“The biggest problem with her is, and where I would go, is that you just can’t trust her,” Jamie Roe, a Republican strategist in Michigan, said.
Whitmer captured the Michigan governor’s mansion in 2018, garnering more than 53% and defeating her Republican opponent by nearly 10 percentage points. Two years later, President Joe Biden bested Trump in the state by almost 3 points while earning 50.6% of the vote. Michigan voters traditionally reelect first term governors of both parties, and 15 months before the midterm elections, national Republicans are more optimistic about their prospects in Kansas, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.
Whitmer is close with Biden and fought openly with Trump during his term over his handling of the coronavirus (the former president was critical of the governor as well,) turning her into a national figure and something of a liberal folk hero. That was evident in her fundraising, which so far surpassed the entirety of what she raised for her 2018 bid. A political spokesman for Whitmer did not respond to an email requesting comment.
“Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has led Michigan through the greatest public health crisis in a century and this [fundraising] report is a testament to the enormous trust people have in her ability to put Michigan first and continue leading our state forward, creating jobs and getting our economy moving again,” the spokesman, Mark Fisk, said in a statement issued earlier in the week.
The Republican primary field is still developing.
The GOP establishment likes Craig because of his law enforcement background. He is not at odds with Trump, is a fresh political face, and has the opportunity to do better than the average Republican in Wayne County, which includes Detroit and is Michigan’s most populous, with a population that is more than 40% black. Craig recently said he was running for governor then clarified that he was exploring a bid.
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Dixon is considered the “MAGA” candidate, so-called in reference to Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan, “Make American Great Again.” Republicans neutral in the primary have been impressed, saying she understands the plight of small business owners and might be best positioned to woo the former president’s loyal blue-collar base. Dixon’s consulting team is experienced and battle-tested, but the lingering question is whether she can raise money.
Meanwhile, some Republicans are hoping Rinke jumps in. They are attracted by the possibility of him self-funding and are convinced Whitmer would have a hard time with a businessman who could run as a political outsider. At this point, Republicans are not clear if their interest in Rinke is at all being reciprocated.
