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Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Can Willem Dafoe Make a Late Entry for an Overdue Oscar Moment?

Variety
Variety
 2021-10-21
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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

UPDATED: Oct 21, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY : The “Belfast” men are supporting, with Jude Hill in lead actor. Born in Belfast, Ireland, where the story takes place, Ciarán Hinds has been a versatile actor for years, featuring memorable turns in Oscar-nominated films such as “There Will Be Blood” from Paul Thomas Anderson and “Munich” from Steven Spielberg. As Pop, a role originally offered to recent best actor winner Anthony Hopkins, Hinds looks to have finally found his Oscar dance. It could mirror the winning strategy for past respected character actors, such as Jim Broadbent when he won for “Iris” (2001), coincidentally also starring Dench.

Irish actor Jamie Dornan, who also grew up in the suburbs of Belfast, is terrific as Pa, channeling the desperation and earnest beats of a man urgently trying to support his family. Dornan has been shepherding an array of exciting roles the last few years, including his passionate musical turn in “Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar.” In comparison to supporting actress, two men from the same film have had trouble finding recognition, with only 20 instances in the Academy archives. However, three of those have happened in the last four years alone (with “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “The Irishman” and “Judas and the Black Messiah”). While there are a couple of films hoping for a double-dip (i.e. “The French Dispatch,” “The Power of the Dog” and “Mass”), “Belfast” seems to be the strongest candidate at the moment, given the film’s frontrunner status.

As one of the last films to drop, word is we could be in store for another play for Willem Dafoe in “Nightmare Alley,” who has four previous nominations and no win as of yet.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS :

RANK ACTOR FILM STUDIO
1 Ciarán Hinds Belfast Focus Features
2 Willem Dafoe Nightmare Alley Searchlight Pictures
3 Ben Affleck The Tender Bar Amazon Studios
4 Jamie Dornan Belfast Focus Features
5 Kodi Smit-McPhee The Power of the Dog Netflix
NEXT IN LINE
6 Idris Elba The Harder They Fall Netflix
7 J.K. Simmons Being the Ricardos Amazon Studios
8 Woody Norman C’mon C’mon A24
9 Corey Hawkins The Tragedy of Macbeth A24/Apple Original Films
10 Troy Kotsur CODA Apple Original Films
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Jeffrey Wright The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures
12 Richard Jenkins The Humans A24/Showtime
13 Andrew Garfield The Eyes of Tammy Faye Searchlight Pictures
14 Jason Isaacs Mass Bleecker Street
15 Jesse Plemons The Power of the Dog Netflix
16 Jared Leto House of Gucci United Artists Releasing/MGM
17 Benicio del Toro The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures
18 Jon Bernthal King Richard Warner Bros
19 Eugenio Derbez CODA Apple Original Films
20 Bradley Cooper Licorice Pizza United Artists Releasing/MGM
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 Timothy Spall Spencer Neon
22 Robin DeJesus tick, tick…Boom! Netflix
23 Colman Domingo Zola A24
24 Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Cyrano United Artists Releasing/MGM
25 Jonah Hill Don’t Look Up Netflix
26 Benedict Wong Nine Days Sony Pictures Classics
27 Lakeith Stanfield The Harder They Fall Netflix
28 Colin Firth Mothering Sunday Sony Pictures Classics
29 Simon Helberg Annette Amazon Studios
30 Ben Affleck The Last Duel 20th Century Studios
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
31 Bradley Whitford tick, tick…Boom! Netflix
32 Christopher Lloyd The Tender Bar Amazon Studios
33 Vincent Lindon Titane Neon
34 David Alvarez West Side Story 20th Century Studios
35 David Strathairn Nightmare Alley Searchlight Pictures
36 Mark Rylance Don’t Look Up Netflix
37 Al Pacino House of Gucci United Artists Releasing/MGM
38 André Holland Passing Netflix
39 Rob Morgan Don’t Look Up Netflix
40 Tony Leung Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Marvel Studios
UNRANKED LISTING
Adam Beach Swan Song Apple Original Films
Adam Driver* The Last Duel 20th Century Studios
Aditya Geddada Encounter Amazon Studios
Adrien Brody The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures
Alexander Skarsgård Passing Netflix
Arsenio Hall Coming 2 America Amazon Studios
Ben Mendelsohn Cyrano United Artists Releasing/MGM
Benicio del Toro No Sudden Move HBO Max
Bill Duke No Sudden Move HBO Max
Bill Murray The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures
Billy Magnussen The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Billy Magnussen No Time to Die United Artists Releasing/MGM
Billy Porter Cinderella Amazon Studios
Brendan Fraser No Sudden Move HBO Max
Brendan Gleeson The Tragedy of Macbeth A24/Apple Original Films
Brian d’Arcy James West Side Story 20th Century Studios
Chang Chen Dune Warner Bros
Chris O’Dowd The Starling Netflix
Cillian Murphy A Quiet Place Part II Paramount Pictures
Corey Hawkins In the Heights Warner Bros
Corey Stoll The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Craig muMs Grant No Sudden Move HBO Max
Damian Lewis Dream Horse Bleecker Street
Daniel Durant CODA Apple Original Films
Daniel Ranieri The Tender Bar Amazon Studios
Dave Bautista Dune Warner Bros
David Dastmalchian The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
David Harbour No Sudden Move HBO Max
Delroy Lindo The Harder They Fall Netflix
Dennis Quaid American Underdog Lionsgate
Dwight Yoakam Cry Macho Warner Bros
Eduardo Minett Cry Macho Warner Bros
Edwin Hodge The Tomorrow War Amazon Studios
Forest Whitaker Respect United Artists Releasing/MGM
Gary Sinise Joe Bell Solstice Studios
Gregory Diaz IV In the Heights Warner Bros
Himesh Patel Don’t Look Up Netflix
Idris Elba Concrete Cowboy Netflix
Idris Elba The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
J.K. Simmons The Tomorrow War Amazon Studios
Jai Courtney The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
Jason Mamoa Dune Warner Bros
Javier Bardem Dune Warner Bros
Jeffrey Wright No Time to Die United Artists Releasing/MGM
Jeremy Irons House of Gucci United Artists Releasing/MGM
Jermaine Fowler Coming 2 America Amazon Studios
Jimmy Smits In the Heights Warner Bros
Joel Kinnaman The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
John Cena The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
John Magaro The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Jon Bernthal The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Jon Hamm No Sudden Move HBO Max
Jonathan Groff The Matrix: Resurrections Warner Bros
Josh Brolin Dune Warner Bros
Julio Torres Together Together Bleecker Street
Kevin Kline The Starling Netflix
Kieran Culkin No Sudden Move HBO Max
Kit Harington Eternals Marvel Studios
Kumail Nanjiani Eternals Marvel Studios
Leslie Odom, Jr. The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Lil Rel Howery Free Guy 20th Century Studios
Lucian-River Chauhan Encounter Amazon Studios
Marc Anthony In the Heights Warner Bros
Mark O’Brien Blue Bayou Focus Features
Matt Smith Last Night in Soho Focus Features
Matthew Perry Don’t Look Up Netflix
Matthias Schoenaerts The Way of the Wind No U.S. Distribution
Michaael Gandolfini The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Michael Chiklis Don’t Look Up Netflix
Michael Rooker The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
Mike Faist West Side Story 20th Century Studios
Neil Patrick Harris The Matrix: Resurrections Warner Bros
Noah Jupe No Sudden Move HBO Max
Oscar Isaac Dune Warner Bros
Owen Teale Dream Horse Bleecker Street
Owen Wilson The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures
Paul Walter Hauser Cruella Disney Plus
Pete Davidson The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
Peter Capaldi The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
Peter Sarsgaard The Lost Daughter Netflix
Pierce Brosnan False Positive A24
Rami Malek No Time to Die United Artists Releasing/MGM
Ray Liotta The Many Saints of Newark Warner Bros
Ray Liotta No Sudden Move HBO Max
Reed Birney Mass Bleecker Street
Reid Miller Joe Bell Solstice Studios
Richard E. Grant Everybody’s Talking About Jamie Amazon Studios
Richard Jenkins Nightmare Alley Searchlight Pictures
Richard Madden Eternals Marvel Studios
Ron Perlman Don’t Look Up Netflix
Rory Cochrane Encounter Amazon Studios
Sam Richardson The Tomorrow War Amazon Studios
Scott Haze Old Henry Shout! Studios
Skeet Ulrich Finch Apple Original Films
Stanley Tucci Worth Netflix
Stellan Skarsgård Dune Warner Bros
Stephen McKinley Henderson Dune Warner Bros
Steven Yeun The Humans A24
Sylvester Stallone The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
Timothée Chalamet Don’t Look Up Netflix
Timothée Chalamet The French Dispatch Searchlight Pictures
Timothy Olyphant The Starling Netflix
Toby Jones The Electrical Life of Louis Wain Amazon Studios
Toni Servillo The Hand of God Netflix
Tony Goldwyn King Richard Warner Bros
Tony Hale Being the Ricardos Amazon Studios
Tracy Morgan Coming 2 America Amazon Studios
Tye Sheridan The Card Counter Focus Features
Tyler Perry Don’t Look Up Netflix
Vincent D’Onofrio The Eyes of Tammy Faye Searchlight Pictures
Vincent D’Onofrio The Unforgivable Netflix
Wesley Snipes Coming 2 America Amazon Studios
Willem Dafoe The Card Counter Focus Features
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II The Matrix: Resurrections Warner Bros

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actor)

The Academy Awards , better known as the Oscars , is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Walter Brennan has the most wins in this category with three, while Mahershala Ali, Michael Caine, Melvyn Douglas, Anthony Quinn, Jason Robards, Peter Ustinov and Christoph Waltz have two. The most nominations in this category are shared between seven actors – Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino and Claude Rains, with four apiece. Christopher Plummer distinguishes being the oldest winner ever at 82 for “Beginners” and nominee for “All the Money in the World” at 88. The youngest winner is Timothy Hutton for his debut performance at 20 for “Ordinary People,” while Justin Henry is the youngest nominee ever at eight for “Kramer vs. Kramer.”.


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards ( Oscars )

The Academy Awards , better known as the Oscars , is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022

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