Analysis: Winners and losers if Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 for SEC

A lightning bolt struck Wednesday in the middle of SEC media days with the report that Oklahoma and Texas have expressed interest in joining college football's most successful conference.

It's been almost 10 years since the SEC expanded to 14 teams with the additions of Texas A&M and Missouri — both castoffs from the Big 12. Grabbing the Sooners and Longhorns would be its last salvo against the league. Both schools are traditional powers that have shaped the history of the sport, and their move would dramatically alter the landscape of college athletics. 

The fallout to the leagues and schools would be immense if the change happens. And there would be impact across the country.

A look at the potential winners and losers of the possible move.

Winners

The SEC

You're the biggest conference in college football. You make the most money. You've won 11 of the past 15 national championships. So why would you add two teams to your league and split that revenue an additional two ways?

The answer is easy: Because they are Oklahoma and Texas. Simply put, they're effectively the two biggest free agents when the next wave of conference realignment comes. You either bring them in or watch as they join a rival league, possibly the Big Ten.

There's also plenty of value in both schools that can further add revenue when television contract negotiations come up again. The Sooners have a history as impressive as any school in the country. They've won seven national championships, produced seven Heisman Trophy winners and made the College Football Playoff four of the past six seasons. Texas hasn't been as successful on the field as its rival, but it would bring the flagship school from one of the best recruiting areas. What was previously opened up by the addition of Texas A&M would become SEC-exclusive territory.

Oklahoma

The Sooners have won the past six Big 12 championships and 14 since the league began in 1996. So why would they give up almost certain inclusion in the  future expanded playoff to play in a league where they're just one fish in a very big pond? The guarantee of more money is certainly a factor. The gap between the Big 12 and SEC continues to grow and the uneasy long-term future of the former makes moving to the latter smart business. Oklahoma would be cemented in the biggest league and left in no danger of being without a chair when the conference expansion music stops.

There's also huge potential in the move. Playing against the best competition would mean games against LSU, Texas A&M and Alabama compared to Oklahoma State, TCU and Kansas State. The Sooners already recruit Texas well, but the move would give them further entre into Florida, Georgia and other SEC areas that have been profitable recently.

No longer being the top dogs in the Big 12 wouldn't be a huge loss when the potential 12-team expanded playoff likely will open the SEC up to three to four spots. That's a reasonable goal for the program, especially if it continues to build on its recruiting success.

College football fans

It just means more, meaning more games between elite college football programs. The SEC expansion to 16 teams would almost certainly lead to an expansion from the current slate of eight league games. Whether nine or 10, there would be better offerings each week.

One of those contests would see the return of the annual showdown between Texas and Texas A&M that was a staple of Thanksgiving weekend before it ended in 2011. There's also the possibility of yearly games for the Longhorns and Oklahoma against LSU, Alabama or Auburn and cross-division games with Florida and Georgia. 

With Oklahoma and Texas moving together, there's no doubt about the future of the Red River Rivalry in Dallas each year. One of the season's iconic games would continue to be played in early October in the middle of the State Fair of Texas.

American Athletic teams

The Big 12 would have two giant holes to fill in its membership should Oklahoma and Texas depart. The obvious candidates would come from the American Athletic Conference. Houston — which has made no secret of its desire to join the Big 12 — would be at the top of that list. Cincinnati is another good bet with its recent success and geographic fit with West Virginia. More spots could be available, too, if the Big 12 wants to get to, umm, 12 teams. Central Florida and Memphis also could be options from the American. 

Losers

The Big 12

There's really no way to sugarcoat what the loss of Oklahoma and Texas would mean to the conference. It would lose its two biggest brands and revenue generators and there's no replacements to fill the void. Instead of arguably being the third-best conference behind the SEC and Big Ten, the league would become clearly the worst of the Power Five, regardless of how it sorts out the replacements.

Among the conference schools, the biggest impact would be felt by Oklahoma State. Continuing the Bedlam Series against the Sooners seems remote, meaning the Cowboys would lose the rivalry game that is a focal point of their season. TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech would have a similar diminished outlook with the Longhorns no longer an opponent. 

Texas

Why are the Longhorns on this list if they're making this move? Yes, going to the SEC is a no-brainer but the costs for Texas would be significant.

The Longhorns operate as the big dog in the Big 12 and try to use their financial might and prestige to push around the rest of the league. That's given them outsized influence over the league office and members. That would go away with the move. Texas would be just another big school in the SEC and it would have to operate with great political adeptness to influence league matters. That would start with the issue of the Longhorn Network deal which gives the school approximately $15 million per year. How that would fit into a league that has its own network — unlike the Big 12 — and splits revenues would surely be a debate.

There's also the question about how well the football program is prepared for the major step up in competition. Texas hasn't won the Big 12 since 2009. It hasn't come close to making the playoff while playing in a league with significantly less talent. It's on its third coach since Mack Brown left and recruiting has suffered with Texas A&M's ascension. This is not a program that has been patient or operates with a modest view of its place in the college football hierarchy. What happens when the losses pile up and they're behind the other programs in the league with little chance of catching up?

Texas A&M

This possibility comes at the worst time for the Aggies. Just now finding its footing on the field and in recruiting under Jimbo Fisher, A&M would no longer have an exclusive foothold in the state when big brother Texas moves into the house.

Much of the Aggies' recruiting success has been built on being the exclusive SEC school in the state. That would no longer exist. Oklahoma is also a major recruiting rival that also would occupy a better position when the schools go head-to-head.

The Aggies left the Big 12 for the SEC to develop their identity away from the shadow and influence of Texas. Now that shadow would return with potential consequences to their success and peace of mind. It's no surprise Texas A&M athletics director Ross Bjork came out so demonstrably against the possible addition. He might not have a choice, though.

American Athletic Conference

The league has been at the front of the playoff expansion debate with Central Florida and Cincinnati missing out even after having unbeaten seasons. But after that success and the expectation of the field being expanded soon, the American could see its top schools picked off and headed for greener pastures.

There are not many places for the conference to turn if that comes to pass. Possibly adding schools from Conference USA or the MAC seems unlikely to change its fortunes. 

The NCAA

The organization just suffered a significant loss in the Supreme Court case that involved a major rebuke from justices about its model that has prioritized money over athletes. It is trying to juggle concerns about name, image and likeness and get relief from Congress with federal legislation that gives it antitrust protection. 

This move does nothing to help its negotiating position as it again smacks of financial considerations being foremost on the thinking of schools and conferences as they make decisions about their athletics programs. 

Follow colleges reporter Erick Smith on Twitter @ericksmith