As many fantasy football leagues are preparing for the 2021 season, we are breaking down the top Falcons players you may be considering for your roster. After examining Matt Ryan last week, running back Mike Davis is the next player up in our fantasy profile series.
Davis, who is an Atlanta native, joined the Falcons this offseason after spending the last season and a half in Carolina. Davis’ career up to this point has seen its fair share of highs and lows. From 2015 to 2019, Davis only totaled 889 yards on the ground, with 514 of those yards coming with Seattle in 2018. In 2020, Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey exited the season early due to injury, allowing for Davis to step in and post a career-best 642 yards and six touchdowns.
Now that Davis has joined the Falcons, the former rival is expected to be the lead back this season. The biggest benefit for Davis is he is no longer hamstrung by an offense built to stretch the field in the passing game, but rather paired up with an offensive mind who can take advantage of his ground-and-pound running style.
In 2020, when Davis carried the ball more than 10 times a game, he averaged 16.53 fantasy points. That’s almost three points higher than his average over the past three years.
What to expect from Davis in 2021
Having a solid stable of running backs in fanatsy football is the prime recipe for success. ESPN projects the Falcons running back to have a less productive season than in 2020, although he’s rostered in 88 percent of ESPN leagues.
On the other hand, Pro Football Focus is much more liberal in their predictions and give Davis a projected total of 209 points in 2021. PFF even projects Davis to carry the ball more times (224) than ESPN (213).
Davis’ most favorable matchups
- Week 3: New York Giants
- Week 8 / 14: Carolina Panthers
- Week 10: Dallas Cowboys
- Week 11: New England Patriots
- Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 16: Detroit Lions
Davis’ least favorable matchups
- Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 4: Washington Football Team
- Week 9 / 18: New Orleans Saints
- Week 15: San Francisco 49ers
Final Verdict
Over the past month, Davis has seen his stock rise among experts. Once viewed someone to be taken in the eighth round or later, he’s now pegged as a player who could be taken in the back half of round five. However, you could get away with taking the Falcons running back in round seven despite an ever increasing average draft position. Over the past two months, Davis’ ADP has been as low as 77 overall and has peaked at 62 overall, where he currently sits.
If drafting Davis is an option you are going for, then his best period of usage could come later in the season between Weeks 10 and 16. As noted above, this slate of games has five favorable matchups. Given the extra game this season, a player like Davis could provide your fantasy team with a load management option late in the season as you contend for the playoffs.
