Gen. Milley: In Afghanistan, ‘will and leadership’ will determine outcome

MILLEY’S SITREP ON AFGHANISTAN: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley described the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan as one in which the Taliban have the “strategic momentum” as they control more than half of the country’s rural centers, while the government in Kabul is consolidating forces to protect provincial capitals where most of the population reside.

“There’s a possibility of a complete Taliban takeover or a possibility of any number of other scenarios — breakdowns, warlordism, all kinds of other scenarios that are out there,” Milley said at a Pentagon briefing Thursday. “We’re monitoring very closely. I don’t think the end game is yet written.”

“You’ve got 34 provincial capitals in Afghanistan. None of them have been seized, as of today, by the Taliban, although the Taliban is putting pressure on the outskirts of probably about half of them, 17 of them, in fact, and what they’re trying to do is isolate the major population centers. They’re trying to do the same thing to Kabul,” Milley said.

“And roughly speaking, the order of magnitude — a significant amount of territory has been seized over the course of six, eight, 10 months sort of thing by the Taliban. So, momentum appears to be — strategic momentum appears to be sort of with the Taliban.”

A TEST OF LEADERSHIP: Milley was asked to explain why the Taliban appeared to be winning despite the government’s overwhelming numerical advantage, with more than 300,000 U.S.-trained and equipped armed forces, compared to just 75,000 Taliban fighters lacking air support or heavy weapons.

“There’s other factors that determine outcomes,” Milley replied. “The two most important combat multipliers actually is will and leadership. And this is going to be a test now of the will and leadership of the Afghan people, the Afghan Security Forces, and the government of Afghanistan.”

Milley insisted that Afghan Security Forces have the capacity to sufficiently fight and defend their country, and the U.S. would continue to support them. “The future of Afghanistan is squarely in the hands of the Afghan people,” he said, “And I’ve said this before, a negative outcome — a Taliban automatic military takeover — is not a foregone conclusion. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and make adjustments as necessary.”

SO FAR 20,000 AFGHANS HAVE APPLIED FOR VISAS: The State Department said yesterday that so far, roughly 20,000 Afghans have applied for special visas to come with their families to the United States, but about half of that number have not gotten past the initial application process.

In a conference call briefing for reporters, Tracey Jacobson, the Afghanistan task force director, said a group of about 4,000 applicants have received chief of mission approval but have not been fully vetted.

“We will take them to locations outside the United States where they can safely await the completion of their application processing, and we will provide them accommodation and other support during this period, which we are committed to making as short as possible.”

The State Department said it could not yet name which countries had agreed to take in the Afghan refugees, but congressional sources said Qatar, the U.A.E, and Kuwait were among the possible locations.

The 750 Afghan applicants and their immediate families who have completed the majority of the visa process, including a thorough security background check, will begin arriving at the Ft. Lee U.S. Army base beginning next week, where their final processing is expected to last only a week to 10 days.

Meanwhile, the House is expected to consider a bill sponsored by Colorado Democrat Jason Crow that would authorize an additional 8,000 special immigrant visas for Afghan interpreters, contractors, and others who helped U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

OPTIONS FOR AFGHANS WHO WORKED FOR US MEDIA: In response to a question about a request for special visas for Afghans who worked for American news organizations, a senior State Department official said, “We are looking at other options for providing safe options for them outside of Afghanistan.”

The category would include Afghans who have helped the United States or helped U.S. organizations, whether it’s NGOs or media organizations, the official said.

A letter to President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed by 25 news organizations urged that special immigrant visas be granted to Afghans who worked with the U.S. media as journalists, interpreters, and support staff.

“For those who fear reprisals, there is a critical need for a special visa program to allow them and their families to find safety in the United States,” the letter said.

“We’ve seen the letter from the news organizations, and we’ll be responding in due course to them,” the State Department official said.

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HAPPENING TODAY: As the Senate Armed Services Committee wrapped up work on the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act last night, a brief announcement seems to indicate that New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand had reached an accommodation with her fellow Democrat Jack Reed, chairman of the committee, over her push to remove the prosecution of all serious crimes from the military chain of command.

The cryptic, two-sentence statement did not make clear if Gillibrand prevailed in getting all the language of her Military Justice Improvement and Increasing Prevention Act into the NDAA, but both senators seemed satisfied.

“We are proud to announce the committee has put forth a strong bill that makes historic changes to the military justice system and combats the scourge of military sexual assault,” the joint statement by Gillibrand and Reed said. “We look forward to working together to bring this bill to the Senate floor and making the NDAA law.”

AUSTIN SEEKS TO KEEP MILITARY OUT OF CULTURE WARS: At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin again insisted that critical race theory is not something embraced or endorsed by the Pentagon.

“I don’t want us to get distracted with the critical race conversation,” Austin said. “We’re not going to spend too much time debating the merits of this theory or any other theory. We’re going to stay focused on making sure that we create the right force to defend this country and promote our values.”

“This department will be diverse, it will be inclusive, and, you know, we’re going to look like the country that we support and defend,” Austin said.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley also refused to get drawn into the debate, insisting the topic was too complicated and nuanced for a quick answer from the podium. “I can do that later, I’ll be happy to do that later, but right now is not a good time to do that. It’s too complicated.”

But Milley did offer a defense of the curricula at service academies and war colleges. “I do think it’s important that we, as a professional military, not only understand foreign countries and foreign culture and foreign societies, that’s important that we do that, but we also need to understand our own society and understand the soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines and the society they’re coming from, and I think that’s important for the leadership to study.”

LLOYD AUSTIN: CRITICAL RACE THEORY STUDY AT MILITARY ACADEMIES DOES NOT MEAN PENTAGON EMBRACES IT

MILLEY WON’T CONFIRM OR DENY: Resorting to the standard response to questions about the location of nuclear weapons, Milley yesterday would neither confirm nor deny quotes attributed to him in various books that portrayed him as worried that former President Donald Trump would either manufacture a crisis or attempt an illegal coup to stay in office.

“I know there’s a lot of interest out there on all of these books that are out there and quoting me and lots of others, et cetera. I’m not going to comment on what’s in any of those books,” Milley said. “Let me just say this, though: I always personally provided the best military professional advice to President Trump.”

“The other thing that I think is important to note here is that I, the other members of the Joint Chiefs, and all of us in uniform, we take an oath, an oath to a document, an oath to the Constitution of the United States, and not one time did we violate that,” he said. “I can say with certainty that every one of us maintained our oath of allegiance to that document, the Constitution, everything that’s contained within it.”

Pressed about whether his “no comment” response would leave the impression that he was “too political at the time,” Milley pushed back.

“I want America to know that the United States military is an apolitical institution,” he said. “And the military did not and will not and should not ever get involved in domestic politics. We don’t arbitrate elections. That’s the job of the judiciary, and the legislature, and the American people. It is not the job of the U.S. military. We stay out of politics, we’re an apolitical institution.”

Secretary Austin, who served with Milley in the Army, said of his former battle buddy, “He doesn’t have a political bone in his body.”

MILLEY SKIRTS QUESTIONS ABOUT COUP DURING FIRST PUBLIC COMMENTS SINCE BOOKS

SYRIA STRIKE: The U.S. conducted two airstrikes in northeastern Syria yesterday in support of Syrian Democratic Forces conducting a raid against an ISIS target.

“Coalition forces conducted two airstrikes on the building in support of our partner forces in contact and to ensure the terrorist threat was eliminated,” tweeted Col. Wayne Marotto, a U.S. military spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, who said one ISIS fighter was killed.

Marotto cited “the inherent right to defend our partner forces” as the justification for the strike.

SOMALIA STRIKE: The Syria strike came one day after the U.S. launched a drone strike in Somalia in support of Somali forces who were fighting al Shabab militants, according to the U.S. Africa Command, which said the strike “targeted known al-Shabaab fighters and took place in a remote area.”

“This strike was conducted under collective self-defense authority and targeted al-Shabaab fighters engaged in active combat with our Somali partners,” said Marine Brig. Gen. Thomas Savage, Africa Command deputy director of operations. “We are committed to supporting our Somali partners as they fight against these terrorists.”

That explanation was questioned by Sen. Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee. The Virginia Democrat told Politico, “I remain concerned with the justification of ‘collective self-defense’ to respond with U.S. military force to protect foreign groups when there is no direct threat to the U.S., its armed forces, or citizens.”

The Somalia strike was the first since President Joe Biden took office and since President Donald Trump ordered all U.S. troops out of Somalia, and they redeployed to neighboring Kenya.

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The Rundown

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Washington Examiner: Ukraine and Poland protest Biden’s Nord Stream 2 deal with Germany

Washington Examiner: Bin Laden intel veteran will lead Havana Syndrome task force

Washington Examiner: State Department: US will impose ‘hard-hitting sanctions’ on Cuban officials

Washington Examiner: Biden to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Aug. 30

Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin: Critical race theory study at military academies does not mean Pentagon embraces it

Washington Examiner: Milley skirts questions about coup during first public comments since books

Washington Examiner: McCarthy pulls all GOP lawmakers from riot panel

Washington Examiner: Life in Uniform: The hand you’re dealt

Reuters: U.S., Japan, South Korea Send Clear Message To N.Korea – U.S. Diplomat

Washington Times: Chinese Cyber Actors Pose ‘Major Threat’ To U.S. National Security

Agence France Presse: Top U.S. Official Heads To China To Seek ‘Guardrails’ In Tense Ties

Air Force Magazine: Russia Officially Unveils New Checkmate Fighter, But Performance Claims are Ambitious

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s New ‘Checkmate’ Stealth Fighter: What We Know (And What We Might Know)

Stars and Stripes: Russian Actions In Black Sea Show ‘Increasing Aggression,’ Says Top U.S. Admiral In The Region

Breaking Defense: SSN(X) Will Be ‘Ultimate Apex Predator’

Defense Daily: CNO Says Final Ford Elevators Delivered By End Of Year, Identifies Lessons learned

Defense Daily: Kilby Says LCS-7 And 9 ‘Might’ Have Future After Divestment

Defense One: Lockheed’s CEO Wants His Company to Connect All the Pentagon’s Weapons

Air Force Magazine: Austin Addresses Lack of Confirmed Senior DOD Leaders

Air Force Magazine: SOCOM Wants Four ‘Armed Overwatch’ Squadrons, With One Always Deployed

USNI News: Lawmakers Say Latest Shipbuilding Plan Doesn’t Do Enough To Counter China

Defense News: Most Of The Royal Navy’s Destroyers Are Unavailable For Deployment

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Mighty S-500 Anti-Aircraft System is No Joke

19fortyfive.com: Is the Chinese Navy Going All-in On Supersonic Cruise Missiles?

Military Times: Racial Inequality On The Table In The Military’s Discussion Of Sexual Misconduct And Justice

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden channels the Hindenburg with German Nord Stream 2 deal

Calendar

THURSDAY | JULY 22

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on U.S.-Korean relations, with former Acting Deputy Defense Secretary Christine Fox, assistant director for policy and analysis at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory https://www.csis.org/events/korea-chair-capital-cable-30-christine-fox

10:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “Enhancing Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific,” with Patty-Jane Geller, policy analyst for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at Heritage; and Brent Sadler, senior fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event

11 a.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar: “Drone Wars: The Spread of Unmanned Tech on Today’s Battlefield,” with journalist Seth Frantzman, author of the new book Drone Wars; and Charles Perkins, JINSA Director for U.S.-Israel Security Policy. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual conversation with former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and former British Prime Minister Theresa May. https://asu.zoom.us

12 p.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement virtual discussion: “Laser Weapons Today and Tomorrow,” with Evan Hunt, director of high energy lasers and counter-unmanned aerial systems at Raytheon Intelligence and Space; Michael Jirjis, directed energy experimentation lead at the Air Force Research Laboratory; and Craig Robin, director of the Army’s Directed Energy Project Office. https://www.defenceiq.com/army-land-forces/webinars

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army online event on “Army Women in Tech,” with Army Maj. Gen. Maria Barrett, commanding general, U.S. Army Network Enterprise Technology Command; and Nancy Kreidler, director, Army Cybersecurity and Information Assurance. Register at thttps://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report-army-women-in-tech

12:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security event to release the final report and recommendations of the Defense Critical Supply Chain Task Force, with Reps. Elissa Slotkin D-Mich., and Mike Gallagher R-Wis.; moderated by Martijn Rasser, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Technology and National Security Program. https://www.cnas.org/events

1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments webinar on it new report: “Implementing Deterrence by Detection: Innovative Capabilities, Processes, and Organizations for Situational Awareness in the Indo-Pacific Region,” with authors Thomas Mahnken, Travis Sharp, Christopher Bassler, Bryan Durkee; and CSBA Council member Chris Brose. https://csbaonline.org/about/events

FRIDAY | JULY 23

11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “How Congress Can help America Get More Out of Our Defense Dollars,” with Philip Candreva, senior lecturer of budgeting and public policy at the Naval Postgraduate School; Eric Lofgren, senior fellow at George Mason University’s Center for Government Contracting; and Frederico Bartels, senior policy analyst for defense budgeting at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Transforming Defense for a Competitive Era.” with Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass.; Jay Dryer, director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Strategic Capabilities Office; former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec Advisers; and Dan Patt, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology. https://www.hudson.org/events/1991-virtual-event

3 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kissinger Institute on China and the United States virtual discussion: “The Selling of a Centennial, 2021: What the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Propaganda Reveals About the CCP,” Anne-Marie Brady, professor at the University of Canterbury; Aynne Kokas, associate professor of media studies at the University of Virginia; Maria Repnikova, assistant professor of global communications at Georgia State University; and Robert Daly, director of the WWC Kissinger Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/selling-centennial-2021

TUESDAY | JULY 27

8:30 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute web event; “Scoping the threat: Do African Salafi-jihadi groups threaten the West?” with Idriss Lallali, deputy director, African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism; Nathaniel Powell, associate researcher, Centre for War and Diplomacy, Lancaster University; Yan St-Pierre, CEO, Modern Security Consulting Group; Katherine Zimmerman, fellow, AEI; and moderator, Jason Warner, assistant professor, Department of Social Sciences, U.S.Military Academy at West Point. https://www.aei.org/events/scoping-the-threat

WEDNESDAY | JULY 28

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Spacepower Forum, with Gen. David “DT” Thompson, vice chief of space operations. Video posted afterward at https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/space-power-forum

12 p.m. — Center for the National Interest virtual forum, “How Stable is North Korea?” with Bruce Bennett, adjunct international/defense researcher, RAND Corporation; Jessica Lee, senior research fellow in the East Asia Program, Quincy Institute; Frank Aum senior expert on Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace; Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Smart Women, Smart Power” event: “U.S. National Security Policy in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Sen. Tammy Duckworth.” https://www.csis.org/events/us-national-security-policy

THURSDAY | JULY 29

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in-person event: “America’s ever-shrinking fighting force,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI; Arnold Punaro, former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee and CEO, Punaro Group; and former Sen. Jim Talent, senior fellow, Bipartisan Policy Center. https://www.aei.org/events/americas-ever-shrinking-fighting-force

TUESDAY | AUGUST 3

8 a.m. — The virtual Aspen Security Forum, Day 1, with Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; Zalmay Khalilzad, special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation; retired Gen. David Petraeus, former director, Central Intelligence Agency; Roya Rahmani, Ambassador of Afghanistan to the U.S.; Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo.; and more. See full agenda and register at https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2021-virtual-asf

WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 4

8 a.m. — The virtual Aspen Security Forum, Day 2, with Anne Neuberger, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies; Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs; Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Stephen Biegun, former deputy secretary of state; Matt Pottinger, former deputy national security adviser; Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska; and more. See full agenda and register at https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2021-virtual-asf