Why was Joe Biden in Ohio yet again? Because 2022 is a now-or-never moment for Democrats.

For more than a century, Ohio has been considered a bellwether state. Its voters have sided with the winning presidential ticket in all but two elections from 1896 to 2016. Yet, after two victories by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, the 2016 outcome suggested Ohio was moving from purple to red – as the state voted 5 points to the right of the rest of the country.

Republicans have held control of all statewide offices for a decade and maintain large majorities in the state legislature. A poor showing among Democrats in Ohio in 2018 in an otherwise strong midterm and another convincing Donald Trump victory in 2020 suggest the state is no longer competitive for Democrats. And yet, Joe Biden just made his third trip to Ohio since becoming president Jan. 20.

Biden didn't do any better against Trump in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016; both Democrats lost Ohio by 8 points. Republicans comfortably won every statewide office – even though the Republican speaker of the Ohio House, Larry Householder, was arrested a few months before the election. In July of 2020, Householder and four others were charged with taking $60 million in bribes for a bailout of the nuclear power industry in the state. Last month, the Ohio House of Representatives took the dramatic step of expelling him.

Looking for signs of doom or hope

So why is Biden spending so much time in a state that seems to be so far out of reach for Democrats? The answer lies in the 2022 midterms. Open Senate seats do not come along very often, and Republican Rob Portman’s retirement presents an opportunity for Democrats to take stock of their long-term competitiveness in the state.

Tough Republican primaries for the party's Senate and gubernatorial nominations provide the slimmest of openings for a successful Democratic comeback. Ultimately, 2022 will signal to Democrats whether they have a future in the state. It’s sink or swim, and Biden knows it.

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Biden visited a union training center in Cincinnati and discussed his economic recovery efforts at a CNN town hall, where he gave an upbeat response to a question about inflation. "We're going to be providing good opportunities and jobs for people who, in fact, are going to be reinvesting that money back in all the things we're talking about, driving down prices, not raising prices," he said.

The economic focus reflects the 2020 post-mortem provided by Democrat Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving female ever in the U.S. House of Representatives and who represents towns and auto industry factories along the Lake Erie coastline from Cleveland to Toledo. Kaptur criticized national Democrats for focusing too much on identity politics while losing ground on the economic issues that drive voting decisions for many in the state.

It would appear that Ohio Democrats got the memo. Both Rep. Tim Ryan, a Senate candidate, and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, a gubernatorial candidate, have been hammering economic populism in the mold of Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown’s 2018 reelection was among the few bright spots for Democrats in the state. We can expect to see Ryan and Whaley focus on jobs and health care, while trying to localize issues to Ohio and separate themselves from some of the more controversial stances of national Democrats. This is right out of the Brown and Kaptur playbook.

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Ryan appears to have a clear path to the nomination, and Whaley’s main competitor is likely to be Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley. These relatively clear-cut primaries are in stark contrast to what's happening in the Republican Party – and Democrats hope to use this to their advantage.

Portman’s exit has produced a strong field of Republicans vying to succeed him. Former State Treasurer Josh Mandel (who ran against Brown in 2012), "Hillbilly Elegy" author J.D. Vance and former Ohio Republican Party Chair Jane Timken are among those in a very large and accomplished field seeking the nomination.  

Waiting for Trump to endorse, or not

Former President Donald Trump will not be on the ticket, but his spirit most likely will be. All the Republican contenders have gone out of their way to mimic Trump in their social media and in their public appearances. For instance, Mandel’s Twitter feed has been particularly noteworthy with controversial tweets, including a suspension from the platform in March. Vance has gone on a mea culpa tour, apologizing for calling Trump “reprehensible” and urging others not to vote for Trump in 2016. Vance has since embraced him, stating: "I’m not just a flip-flopper, I’m a flip-flop-flipper on Trump."

If Trump were to wade into the race, his blessing would undoubtedly determine the party’s nominee. If the first few months of the race are any indication, the Republican primary will be brutal.

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Trump’s presence stimulated turnout in 2016 and 2020 (especially among rural voters), but his name isn't on the ballot in 2022. Although the president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm elections, Democrats are hopeful that Trump's absence can help them close the turnout gap. That will be critical if they are to have any chance at success.

If Democrats have another poor showing in 2022, then Ohio will lose its status as a swing state for 2024. If they are competitive, then Ohio will continue to get love from presidential campaigns in the next election. Biden’s visits to the Buckeye State suggest a sliver of optimism for Democrats, and he is doing his part to raise their odds. What happens in 2022 is a last stand for Democrats to avoid the state moving from reddish purple to blood red.

Robert Alexander, director of the Institute for Civics and Public Policy at Ohio Northern University, is author of "Representation and the Electoral College." Follow him on Twitter: @onuprof