The New York Mets (49-42) and Cincinnati Reds (48-46) continue their three-game series Tuesday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York took the first game of the series in a wild 15-11 extra innings affair in which the Mets hit 7 home runs but committed 4 errors and had to rally back from a 7-3 deficit after the second inning.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0.
RHP Robert Stock is New York’s projected starter. He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA (8 IP, 7 ER) on 8 H and 8 BB against 8 K over two starts, one with the Chicago Cubs and one for New York.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-0, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K July 7 against the Milwaukee Brewers.
LHP Wade Miley makes his 17th start for the Reds. He is 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA (96 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K at the Brewers July 9.
- 2021 home stats: 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB rate through eight starts.
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Mets at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Reds 9, Mets 5
Money line (ML)
BET the REDS (-140) for 1 unit because Miley has been the most consistent starter in Cincy’s rotation. The Mets are also only 21-28 on the road and 9-16 against lefty starters.
New York’s lineup is 22nd in both wOBA and OPS and has the fourth-lowest hard-contact rate in the majors against left-handed pitching.
Furthermore, Miley is an innings eater for the Reds and has pitched a quality start in five of his last six outings, which is something they desperately need because the bullpen is atrocious.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+125) since I’m high on Miley as a starter and oddsmakers are projecting a higher-scoring game so there’s a good chance the victor will win by 2 or more runs.
However, what’s holding me back is Cincinnati’s 14-22 ATS record as a home favorite this season and New York’s 17-8 ATS record as a road underdog.
Also, the Reds’ Game 1 loss to the Mets was just further proof Cincy’s bullpen is completely unreliable so it’s tough laying -1.5 in most games.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit because the market is barreling into the Over.
Cincinnati is 27-19-1 O/U at home this season and New York is 28-18-2 O/U on the road. Even though Miley has been good the Reds are still 10-6 O/U in his outings.
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