Advertisement

Thunder draft: 5 players that could fall out of lottery, to No. 16

With the NBA draft less than two weeks away, the Oklahoma City Thunder are continuing to evaluate their big board and prospects around the world as they take their next step.

Barring trades, the Thunder will enter the draft with six picks: Nos. 6, 16, 18, 34, 36 and 55.

There are a handful of players who are near-certainties to be lottery selections, but with the subjectivity that naturally comes along with prospects and front offices, there is always lottery talent that slips down.

Holding the 16th pick, the Thunder could find such player. Here are five lottery talent names who could still be available when Oklahoma City has its mid-first-round picks.

The list is in alphabetical order. Stats are from Basketball-Reference.

Jalen Johnson

Jan. 19, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Duke Blue Devils forward Jalen Johnson (1) warms up before playing the Pittsburgh Panthers at the Petersen Events Center. Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Jalen Johnson is widely expected to be a lottery pick and may be the least likely player on this list to be available at No. 16, but when experts such as The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie have him out of the lottery, it’s worth noting.

Johnson is incredibly explosive and has athleticism that should translate on both sides of the ball. He’s a good ball handler not despite his 6-foot-9, 200-pound size, but in part because of that size. He uses his length well.

But, right now, he’s all potential. While he gets to the rim and is a strong cutter, he doesn’t look for contact at the rim. He needs to learn to absorb it and make better decisions when he drives. His 44% shooting from 3 looks impressive without context, but he only attempted 18 shots from beyond the arc. I think his free-throw percentage of 63.2% is more indicative of his ability.

There’s a lot for Johnson to learn, but the tools are there. If he’s available, he’s a risk worth taking.

Keon Johnson

Feb. 27, 2021; Auburn, Alabama; Tennessee Volunteers guard Keon Johnson (45) shoots the ball against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at Auburn Arena. John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Keon Johnson seems like a total Sam Presti prospect. His athleticism is off the charts. His defense looks like it can be very good. And he can’t shoot the ball.

Johnson has the speed and athleticism to get to the basket, where he puts together some crazy finishes, whether dunks or layups. On the other side of the ball, he’s super quick, which allows him to move side-to-side and stay on his man effectively. There’s real potential at both ends of the court, and his defense already looks very good. But that offense worries me.

One of the reasons the Russell Westbrook-era Thunder could never get to the top is they didn’t surround their stars with enough shooters, and they’ll need to do it this time around, too. Johnson and someone like Lu Dort would be fun defensively but nightmarish offensively.

That athleticism is intriguing, though, and if he can tap into some offensive power to go along with his defense that would make him worthy of a first-round selection.

Kai Jones

Jan. 5, 2021; Austin, Texas; Iowa State Cyclones forward Javan Johnson (13) tries to get the ball in play against Texas Longhorns forward Kai Jones (22) in the first alf at the Frank C. Erwin Jr Special Events Center. Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman via USA TODAY NETWORK

It’s important to look beyond the numbers for Kai Jones. The 7-foot-1 center is super fast and gets up the court in transition. His movement around the court is what impresses me most, whether it’s sprinting from the other end or cutting to the rim. 

His defense is lacking, and that may be because he doesn’t have the awareness he needs after playing organized basketball for only a handful of years. But he already is a good shot blocker.

I get some young Moses Brown vibes from Jones based on the way he moves around the court with apparent eagerness. He plays fast. He has energy. He needs a whole lot of development. The Thunder can be patient.

Moses Moody

March 29, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Moses Moody (5) waves to the stands while leaving the court after the game in the Elite Eight of the 2021 NCAA Tournament against the Baylor Bears at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Moses Moody is unlikely to last this long in the draft. Projected as a 3-and-D type of player, he looks more NBA-ready than anyone else on this list. Listed at 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan, Moody can switch positions to defend a variety of players. He’ll be instantly playable on that end of the court.

His shooting also will not be an issue. He shot 35.8% from 3 on 5.1 looks per game and averaged almost 17 points. All this looks like it will translate to the NBA quickly, and teams such as the New Orleans Pelicans, Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors who are looking to compete next season may snatch him up before the Thunder get their second pick.

But he could still fall. He’s not all that athletic, and his passing isn’t up to speed. His potential may top out at a 3-and-D who can drive a bit. But even if that is it, that’s a type of player every good team needs to become a great one.

Alperen Sengun

Turkey’s Alperen Sengun looks for an opening as Greece’s Konstantinos Mitoglou defends during the first half of a semifinal in the FIBA men’s Olympic basketball qualifying tournament Saturday, July 3, 2021, in Victoria, British Columbia. Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press via AP

Alperen Sengun is my favorite player on this list. I’m psyched for him to come to the NBA. I think he’s going to be really good.

The Turkish League MVP moves well, passes well, dribbles well and can take the ball up the court in transition. He dunks and gets to the free-throw line. He barrelled his way to 19.2 points on 64.6% shooting in 28.3 minutes per game. He did that as an 18-year-old. And his footwork in the post! So good. So polished.

Additionally, with Sengun’s 81% free throw shooting, I think he’ll be able to become a player who a defense has to be aware of beyond the arc. His offensive potential looks high.

His defense … that’s another story. When he has to venture beyond the paint, it’s bad.

Sengun is slow. He’ll get caught in the air or beat off the dribble with one move. When opponents use pick-and-rolls to get their ball handlers switched onto him from the arc, it often ends poorly. If it doesn’t improve, he will get played off the court, even if his post defense is solid enough that he averaged 1.7 blocks per game. But the Thunder have time to work on it. If his offensive is as good as it was in Turkey, it’s worth it.

Follow all of your favorite Oklahoma teams at Sooners Wire, OKC Thunder Wire and The Oklahoman!

More NBA Draft