The Baltimore Orioles (28-62) visit the Kansas City Royals (37-53) Saturday at Kauffman Stadium for the second of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Kansas City crushed Baltimore 9-2 in the first game of the series with Royals leadoff hitter 2B Whit Merrifield going 4-for-4 with a double and three RBIs.
Season series: Royals lead 1-0.
Baltimore hasn’t officially announced its starter but FanGraphs and Rotowire project Orioles RHP Jorge Lopez as Saturday’s starter.
Lopez is 2-12 with a 5.95 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 18 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 12-1, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K vs. the Chicago White Sox July 9.
- 2021 road splits: 1-7 with a 6.39 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.70 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB rate in nine starts.
RHP Brady Singer is Kansas City’s projected starter. Singer is 3-6 with a 4.52 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Kansas City’s 5-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds July 7.
- 2021 home splits: 2-3 with a 3.99 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.45 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB rate in 10 starts.
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Orioles at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Royals -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Royals -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Royals 8, Orioles 5
Money line (ML)
BET the ROYALS (-150) for 1 unit because more than 85% of the cash is on K.C.’s money line (according to Pregame.com), and a majority of those wagers have to be “sharp” money given Saturday’s sports slate.
For instance, round three of The Open Championship tees off Saturday morning, and Game 5 of the NBA Finals tips off later that night. So it’s not like your “average Joe” is betting the Orioles-Royals game.
Furthermore, Singer’s pitching peripherals suggest his basic numbers could see some progression in the second half of the season; whereas Lopez’s advanced pitching splits paint an even bleaker picture of his 2021 campaign.
Singer’s ERA estimators (xFIP, FIP and SIERA) are all lower than his standard ERA while Lopez grades in the 21st percentile or worse in exit velocity, expected wOBA, hard-hit rate, chase rate and whiff rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since we don’t know for sure who’s starting this game, and K.C. is only 6-12 in Singer’s 18 starts this year so the Royals -1.5 (+125) isn’t enticing enough.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a half unit because the Royals are 24-18-2 O/U at home this year, and the Over has cashed in eight of Baltimore’s previous nine games.
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