Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Kristen Stewart Holding Strong on Top But Olivia Colman Buzz Lurks


Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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UPDATED: Oct 21, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY : After debuting at Venice and Telluride, the raves for Kristen Stewart ’s daring performance were fast and fierce from critics and festival attendees. Casual moviegoers, however, are going to have trouble engaging with the material. If Neon wants to have a fighting chance at a best picture nomination, it will need to up its efforts to notify the public, and voting groups, that this is not a biopic on the late princess. If Stewart hopes to win best actress, more nominations will be needed for the film. Charlize Theron is the last winner, who was on her first nomination, to be the sole nominee for her movie (“Monster” in 2004).

After Renée Zellweger (“Judy”), Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) and Charlize Theron (“Monster”) won Oscars for their impressively altered looks, Jessica Chastain could be on a similar path for her role as the media-loving televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker in Michael Showalter’s “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Following a world bow at the Toronto International Film Festival, the Searchlight Pictures dramedy, echoing previous Oscar embraces such as “I, Tonya,” could make Chastain a contender for her third nomination, and could bring in a few other notices if campaigned correctly.

Frances McDormand, who stars as Lady Macbeth, made history last year as the first woman to be nominated for producing and acting in the same year for “Nomadland,” winning her third and fourth Oscars respectively. She could take two awards for “Macbeth” as well, which would put her in the company of Katharine Hepburn, the only actor to win four acting Oscars, all in lead.

Some surprise names that will be submitted in this field include Marion Cotillard (“Annette”) and Margot Robbie (“The Suicide Squad”) while Melissa Barrera (“In the Heights”) was shifted to supporting alongside her two counterparts, Leslie Grace and Olga Merediz.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


1 Kristen Stewart Spencer Neon
2 Jessica Chastain The Eyes of Tammy Faye Searchlight Pictures
3 Olivia Colman The Lost Daughter Netflix
4 Frances McDormand The Tragedy of Macbeth A24/Apple Original Films
5 Penélope Cruz Parallel Mothers Sony Pictures Classics
6 Lady Gaga House of Gucci United Artists Releasing/MGM
7 Nicole Kidman Being the Ricardos Amazon Studios
8 Rooney Mara* Nightmare Alley Searchlight Pictures
9 Jennifer Hudson Respect United Artists Releasing/MGM
10 Rachel Zegler West Side Story 20th Century Studios
11 Renate Reinsve The Worst Person in the World Neon
12 Emilia Jones CODA Apple Original Films
13 Alana Haim Licorice Pizza United Artists Releasing/MGM
14 Tessa Thompson Passing Netflix
15 Halle Berry Bruised Netflix
16 Jennifer Lawrence Don’t Look Up Netflix
17 Rachel Sennott Shiva Baby Utopia
18 Jodie Comer The Last Duel 20th Century Studios
19 Chanté Adams A Journal for Jordan Sony Pictures
20 Vicky Krieps Bergman Island IFC Films
21 Sandra Bullock The Unforgivable Netflix
22 Zazie Beetz The Harder They Fall Netflix
23 Marion Cotillard Annette Amazon Studios
24 Agatha Rousselle Titane Neon
25 Natalie Morales Language Lessons Shout! Studios
26 Helen Mirren The Duke Sony Pictures Classics
27 Emily Blunt A Quiet Place Part II Paramount Pictures
28 Tilda Swinton Memoria Neon
29 Odessa Young Mothering Sunday Sony Pictures Classics
30 Scarlett Johansson Black Widow Marvel Studios
31 Isabelle Fuhrman The Novice IFC Films
32 Emma Stone Cruella Disney Plus
33 Tilda Swinton The Souvenir Part II A24
34 Thomasin McKenzie Last Night in Soho Focus Features
35 Jessica Barden Holler IFC Films
36 Taylour Paige Zola A24
37 Jennifer Ehle John and the Hole IFC Films
38 Millicient Simmonds A Quiet Place Part II Paramount Pictures
40 Melissa McCarthy The Starling Netflix
41 Gemma Chan* Eternals Marvel Studios
Alicia Vikander* Blue Bayou Focus Features
Alysha Hart Mogul Mowgli Strand Releasing
Camila Cabello Cinderella Amazon Studios
Camille Cottin Stillwater Focus Features
Carrie-Anne Moss The Matrix: Resurrections Warner Bros
Cate Blanchett* Nightmare Alley Searchlight Pictures
Danielle MacDonald Falling for Figaro IFC Films
Grace Van Patten Mayday Magnolia Pictures
Haley Bennett* Cyrano United Artists Releasing/MGM
Jodie Comer* Free Guy 20th Century Studios
Joséphine Sanz Petite Maman Neon
Kaitlyn Dever Dear Evan Hansen Universal Pictures
Keri Russell Antlers Searchlight Pictures
Krisha Fairchild Freeland Dark Star Pictures
Margot Robbie The Suicide Squad Warner Bros
Mila Kunis Four Good Days Vertical Entertainment
Natalie Morales Plan B Hulu
Patti Harrison Together Together Bleecker Street
Paula Beer Undine IFC Films
Sharon Horgan Together Bleecker Street
Sofia Kappel Pleasure A24
Sophia Ali India Sweets and Spices Bleecker Street
Taryn Manning Karen Quiver
Toni Collette Dream Horse Bleecker Street
Virginie Efira Benedetta IFC Films
Yvonne Strahovski The Tomorrow War Amazon Studios


The Academy Awards , better known as the Oscars , is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Katharine Hepburn has the most awards in this category with four. In contrast, 13 women have won two each – Ingrid Bergman, Bette Davis, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster, Olivia de Havilland, Glenda Jackson, Vivien Leigh, Frances McDormand, Luise Rainer, Meryl Streep, Hilary Swank and Elizabeth Taylor. Streep has the most nominations in this category with 17, while Hepburn has 12, and Davis has 10. The oldest winner is Jessica Tandy at 80 for “Driving Miss Daisy,” The oldest nominee is Emmanuelle Riva at 85 for “Amour.” The youngest winner at 21 is Marlee Matlin (“Children of a Lesser God”), and the youngest nominee at 9 is Quvenzhané Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”).

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards ( Oscars )

The Academy Awards , better known as the Oscars , is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022

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