The Milwaukee Brewers (53-36) host the Cincinnati Reds (45-42) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee beat Cincinnati Thursday 5-3 as the Brewers relievers held the Reds hitters scoreless over 4 2/3 innings pitched with just 1 hit, 0 walks and 6 strikeouts.
Season series: Tied 5-5.
LHP Wade Miley is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Cincinnati’s 3-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs Sunday.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 89 at-bats with a .247/.316/.404 slash line, 24/7 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.
LHP Eric Lauer is on the mound for the Brewers. Lauer is 3-3 with a 4.11 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over eight starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 11-2, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K Saturday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Lauer took a loss June 14 vs. the Reds with a stat line of 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Milwaukee’s 10-2 defeat.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .262/.430/.344 slash line, 20/16 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.
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Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:29 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Brewers 6, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
I’m BETTING 1 unit on the BREWERS (-125) for a few different reasons. First, the presumed “sharp” money is rolling with the Brewers while the “public” is backing the Reds.
According to Pregame.com, the number of bets on each team is equal but 65% of the money is on Milwaukee, which is what caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers’ money line from a pick ’em to a -125 favorite.
Second, despite the Reds having a much more productive lineup – Cincinnati’s lineup is 10th in wRC+ and Milwaukee’s is 21st – the Reds batters don’t hit lefties very well.
For instance, Cincinnati’s lineup ranks in the bottom 6 of the majors vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Finally, the Reds need to get to Lauer early because I have no faith their bullpen will be able to pull this game out. Cincinnati’s bullpen is 26th in WAR, 25th in xFIP, 28th in hard-hit rate and 29th in launch angle.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Cincinnati is 18-12 ATS as a road dog this season and is actually favored on the First 5 Innings money line so I’m leery about laying it with Brewers run line since there’s a good chance will need Milwaukee to take this game in the late innings.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half unit because these teams have a combined 15-8 O/U record when these starters are on the mound plus the market slightly prefers the Over and it’s not like there’s a lot of public money on a Reds-Brewers game in the middle of July.
Furthermore, it’s best to act ASAP if you’re betting on BetMGM because most sportsbooks have moved the Reds-Brewers total up to a flat-9 with juice on the Under but BetMGM hasn’t adjusted their total yet.
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