Kyle Pitts enters the league with perhaps more pressure than any tight end has ever faced. He made history when the Atlanta Falcons took him with the fourth overall pick, making him the first tight end to be selected in the top five since the common era of the draft began in 1967.
Naturally, Pitts is expected to play a major role in the Falcons offense in 2021, and his performance as a rookie became even more crucial last week, when Atlanta traded one of the league’s elite receivers in Julio Jones to Tennessee.
That move was expected, but now it places a lot of responsibility at the feet of Pitts to be productive in the passing game. Luckily for him, he’s got the numbers on his side. According to NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund, he’s expected to produce the most out of any rookie tight end.
First, some background info to set the table, via Next Gen Stats. Last season as the Titans’ offensive coordinator, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith used 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) on 32.7 percent of snaps, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only Philadelphia. The Falcons used it on just 13.9 percent of snaps in 2020 (ninth-lowest rate in the NFL). So, you might expect to see Pitts and his fellow Falcons tight end, Hayden Hurst, on the field at the same time a lot. Context matters a ton here, though, because not only did the presence (and departure) of Julio Jones matter to this projection, but Pitts does not forecast to be a traditional tight end, which you know after watching all of our draft coverage. Pitts lined up wide on over 35 percent of his snaps for Florida last season, and his wingspan is ridiculous (83 3/8 inches). So, I measured something new for you in this exercise because the impact of such a massive catch radius is an interesting thing to explore with him. Pitts caught passes thrown more than four feet away from his body at the highest rate of any pass catcher (including wide receivers) from the past two draft classes in their final collegiate season. Of the pass catchers selected in the first three rounds over the past two drafts, the average catch rate on such passes was 14.8 percent (15.3% for first-rounders only). Pitts’ rate? 23.5 percent! My normal draft predictor model (which doesn’t include the catch radius metric) ranked Pitts as the most likely future All-Pro from the 2021 draft class. I’m glad the new stat backs that projection up even more.
It’s high praise for Pitts, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Even missing several games due to injury in 2020, he was Kyle Trask‘s favorite target and likely would’ve been UF’s leading receiver had he played in every game. Though technically listed as a tight end, Pitts is more of a plug-and-play guy in the receiving game. Line him up outside like a wideout or put him in the traditional “Y tight end” slot, and he’s sure to be productive either way.
Pitts was perhaps the most intriguing player of this past draft class and the Falcons placed a lot of faith in his abilities. Now all that’s left to do is live up to the hype.
