Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine is far from impenetrable in a Republican primary, but few GOP insiders believe former congressman Jim Renacci has the political wherewithal to oust the incumbent.
DeWine frustrated grassroots Republicans with a coronavirus strategy embracing mask mandates and business lockdowns, and he ticked off Donald Trump because he refused to embrace the former president’s claim the 2020 election was stolen. Those factors, plus a bribery scandal roiling the state capital of Columbus, have created fertile ground for a primary challenge.
But Renacci is ill-suited to capitalize, lacking charisma, relationships, work ethic, and general political skill, Republican operatives in Ohio say.
“Jim Renacci has a better chance of winning one of the next Vax-a million drawings than he does of actually becoming Ohio’s next governor,” said Nick Everhart, a GOP strategist in Columbus.
“The saddest thing about Jim Renacci is, had he just raised or put in $1 million or so more, he would have beat [Democratic Sen.] Sherrod Brown in the 2018 election cycle,” Everhart added, echoing other Republican operatives interviewed for this story. “Mind you, he was scared out of the Ohio governor GOP primary versus none other than eventual governor, Mike DeWine.”
The Renacci campaign dismissed the complaints and attacks as irrelevant, saying the real issue is DeWine’s record. In a statement mailed to the Washington Examiner Friday afternoon, the Renacci campaign charged Ohio as “the most corrupt state in the country” and suffering from economic malaise.
“This happened on DeWine’s watch,” the statement read.
“Instead of balancing the pandemic with our economy, he shut us down, robbed children of their education, and brought more misery to Ohio,” the Renacci campaign argued. “Jim Renacci is the exact type of leader who will go to Columbus to clean up DeWine’s mess and restore prosperity back to Ohio.”
TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT PUTS TED BUDD IN POLE POSITION
Renacci, 62, is a wealthy businessman who was a House member during Trump’s first midterm election. That cycle, he sought the governor’s mansion in an open Republican primary but was outflanked by DeWine and headed toward defeat. So, Renacci switched gears, jumping into the Republican Senate primary after front-runner Josh Mandel dropped out. With Trump angry at DeWine and looking to back a primary challenger, Renacci opted for another run at becoming Ohio’s chief executive.
Renacci is framing his campaign as a Trump-style insurgency, claiming the title of “blue-collar entrepreneur” and casting DeWine as an establishment Republican who made a career out of politics. But DeWine’s biggest failure, Renacci charges, has been his management of the pandemic.
“Then, COVID happened, and he made a choice to rule like [Democratic New York Gov.] Andrew Cuomo instead of leading like President Trump,” Renacci said in a video announcing his campaign.
“DeWine defied Trump,” Renacci said, “and was praised by” President Joe Biden. “Enough is enough with Ohio’s wannabe-Cuomo. Now is the time to put a conservative leader in charge.”
Renacci’s messaging is likely to appeal to a conservative base that supports Trump, who defeated Biden in Ohio last year 53.3% to 45.3%.
But Trump could resist backing the former congressman given his loss to Brown in the 2018 Senate race when Renacci lost 46.6% to 53.4%. Given the Republican domination of Ohio in the Trump era, that showing suggests weakness, and the former president is wary of endorsing weak candidates. Renacci’s bid for Trump’s endorsement could receive a boost from Brad Parscale, the former Trump political adviser is consulting Renacci’s gubernatorial campaign.
As potent as Trump’s endorsement can be in primaries, some Republican operatives in Ohio are not sure it would be enough to push Renacci past DeWine if the 74-year-old — a former senator, state attorney general, House member, and lieutenant governor — follows through with plans to seek a second term. The biggest knock on Renacci is that he does not work hard enough on the blocking and tackling of politics, such as fundraising and grassroots campaigning. DeWine is a workhorse.
That contrast could cost Renacci the support of party operatives and officials who might be disenchanted with DeWine’s leadership but do not want to back him against a sitting governor they believe is more likely to win the primary. One senior Ohio Republican compared Renacci to John Kasich, the prickly former GOP governor who preceded DeWine and ran for president in 2016.
“Imagine John Kasich’s personality without the charisma and without the work ethic,” this Republican said.
In a poll of Republican primary voters conducted in May by Renacci pollster Tony Fabrizio, DeWine trailed the challenger in a head-to-head matchup 42% to 34%. The survey also showed the governor’s job approval and personal favorability ratings underwater.
