The Colorado Rockies (25-40) meet the Cincinnati Reds (31-31) Sunday to wrap up a three-game series with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Antonio Senzatela is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. He is 2-6 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 64 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
During his one start against the Reds this season, Senzatela dealt, allowing 1 ER in 7 IP. In his last start Tuesday at Miami he allowed 4 ER on 9 H and 1 BB with 8 K in 6 IP. The 26-year-old has struggled away from home in his four road starts.
RHP Tony Santillan is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is set to make his big-league debut after posting a 2.51 ERA through 6 starts while with Triple-A Louisville.
Santillan was the team’s second-round pick in 2015, and is stepping into the rotation as RHP Sonny Gray is nursing a groin injury.
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Rockies at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:49 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Reds -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-145) | Reds -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Reds 8, Rockies 4
Money line (ML)
PASS on the money line despite the Reds hitting their stride.
After five different batters hit a home run in each of the first five innings Friday, something that had not been done in the organization’s lengthy history, Cincinnati followed up with another double-digit run performance against a better pitcher Saturday.
With Senzatela taking the mound, it could get ugly again as the Rockies are now 5-26 on the road, a record too grave to overlook.
At the same time, the obvious is that the Reds have a new pitcher on the mound. At (-155), it’s not worth betting that he’ll have an outstanding first outing.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” the Reds -1.5 (+120) as they’ve blown out the Rockies in each of the first two games and don’t look to be slowing down.
Joey Votto has 3 H in 8 AB in the series and has accumulated 6 RBIs. The former NL MVP is making good contact since his return from the Injured List.
With Votto and Nick Castellanos already batting extremely well against the Rockies, there’s no reason to think this won’t be a sweep. The first two games have been separated by at least five runs each, and this one could easily follow that pattern.
Nonetheless, with a money-back value, the Reds spread is the way to go instead of the money line. However, there may be a better play considering the debuting pitcher.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 10 (-110) because the Rockies just cannot contain Cincinnati. The Reds have beaten the Rockies in two straight games by a combined score of 21-8, and without Colorado’s ace on the mound, there’s no reason to think they can keep them down today.
Along those lines, the Rockies have scored 4 runs per game in the series on their own. The over should hit in this one if the series continues as it has the first couple of games.
Also, as noted, Tony Santillan is making his big-league debut which could result in a big scoreline for Colorado. Then again, he was pitching well at Triple-A Louisville, so he may also impress at the highest level.
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