Former President Donald Trump’s surprise endorsement of Rep. Ted Budd in the North Carolina Senate race erased Mark Walker’s advantage with grassroots Republicans and set up a two-man race for the 2022 nomination with Pat McCrory.
Walker, a former congressman, won a Senate straw poll of party activists conducted over the weekend at the North Carolina Republican Party convention. The staunch conservative romped with 44%, compared to 29% for Budd and 18% for McCrory, the former governor. But after Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, opted against running for the Senate, the former president used his convention keynote to endorse Budd, blocking Walker’s path to victory in the primary.
“With Trump jumping in to endorse Ted Budd, the biggest loser is Mark Walker,” said Mitch Kokai, senior political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank in Raleigh, North Carolina. “This gives Ted Budd a major leg up to being the alternative to Pat McCrory.”
The Walker campaign was caught off guard by Trump’s endorsement of Budd.
Through intermediaries, the former congressman’s political team has been told the former president granted the endorsement as a favor to Mark Meadows. Meadows, a former North Carolina congressman, was Trump’s chief of staff when his term ended in January. Conventional wisdom was that the former president was going to keep his powder dry in the primary until closer to the December filing deadline, at which time Lara Trump was expected to bow out.
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The North Carolina Republican Party was equally shocked by Trump’s endorsement. Chairman Michael Whatley issued a statement distancing the party from the former president’s decision and declaring neutrality in the primary. Curiously, although the state party informed Budd, McCrory, and Walker of the results of the straw poll — Walker tweeted them out Saturday — it withheld the results from the public for two days. The information was scheduled to be released Monday afternoon.
Some GOP operatives said the party was trying to avoid embarrassing Trump, who was not aware of the final tally when he endorsed Budd onstage. Livy Polen, a spokeswoman for the North Carolina GOP, denied that the straw poll delay had anything to do with Trump. “That’s just a rumor,” she said. “We just wanted to make sure all of our announcements were portrayed in an organized manner.”
With Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican, retiring next year, Budd, McCrory, and Walker moved early for the advantage in the March 2022 primary.
McCory, 64, who was Charlotte mayor for 14 years and has run statewide three times, winning the governor’s mansion on his second try, in 2012, enjoys the most name recognition out of the three. Walker, 52, who was a House member for six years and toyed with running for Senate in the past, was the most widely known conservative alternative to McCrory. Not after Trump endorsed Budd, 49, and in such prominent fashion.
“This man’s a great politician. But more importantly, he’s somebody that loves the state of North Carolina,” Trump told the convention. “I’m going to do it now because — again, I don’t want a lot of people running, and then, they’re going to be disappointed.” The former president then called Budd onstage for a prime photo-op. “Mr. President, Lara, this means the world to me,” Budd said. “Let’s get back to making America great again.”
Senior Republican insiders in North Carolina say the primary is now Budd’s to lose. McCrory, considered the so-called GOP establishment pick, is particularly loathed by Trump, a potential problem in a head-to-head with either Budd or Walker, versus a three-way contest where the two grassroots favorites eat up that portion of the vote.
“Trump’s endorsement of Ted Budd means Mark Walker has no path to the nomination and Pat McCrory’s path just got very narrow,” an elected North Carolina Republican told the Washington Examiner.
Added a Republican strategist in the state: “That endorsement further solidifies this is a two-way race between Budd and McCrory. Only chance Mark Walker had slipped away on Saturday night.”
Some Republicans are treading lighter with their predictions. The primary is nine months away, and Budd has yet to demonstrate his ability to prosecute an effective statewide campaign. Granted, he might not have to do it on his own if Trump campaigns for him often. The former president’s endorsement certainly creates a test case for how powerful his endorsement will be in GOP primaries in 2022.
The Republican base in North Carolina has always been loyal to Trump. If the former president’s seal of approval is going to make a difference anywhere, it should do so in the Tarheel State.
“It’s obviously a boost for Budd, but not definitive,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who hails from North Carolina and previously worked for Burr. “The race has a long way to go.”
