After adding over 36,000 new cases on May 13, the U.S. now has more than 32.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 570,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 13.6 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 15.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Johnson City, TN, metro area consists of Washington County, Carter County, and Unicoi County. In the past week, there were an average of 13.8 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Johnson City residents, in line with the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is a decrease from the week prior, when there was an average of 19.0 daily new cases per 100,000 Johnson City residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Johnson City metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in Unicoi County. There were an average of 19.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Unicoi County during the past week, the most of the three counties in Johnson City with available data.

Case growth in the Johnson City metro area varies at the county level. In Carter County, for example, there were an average of 11.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Johnson City and more than the case growth rate in Unicoi County.

While Unicoi County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Johnson City area, it does not have the highest incidence of cases overall. As of May 13, there were a total of 11,464.8 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Unicoi County, the second most of the three counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 9,997.3 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Unicoi County, unemployment peaked at 13.0% in April 2020. As of March 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 7.1%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending May 13. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Tennessee where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 13	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 6	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Unicoi County	17,811	19.1	32.3	11,464.8	275.1
2	Washington County	127,805	13.9	18.3	11,458.1	191.7
3	Carter County	56,433	11.8	16.3	11,769.7	280.0

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