Special Report

This is the County in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metro Area Where COVID-19 is Growing the Fastest

John Moore / Getty Images News via Getty Images

After adding over 36,000 new cases on May 13, the U.S. now has more than 32.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 570,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 13.6 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 15.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI, metro area consists of Cook County, DuPage County, Lake County, and 11 other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 17.7 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Chicago residents, in line with the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there was an average of 20.6 daily new cases per 100,000 Chicago residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in Grundy County. There were an average of 23.5 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Grundy County during the past week, the most of the 14 counties in Chicago with available data.

Case growth in the Chicago metro area varies at the county level. In Kenosha County, for example, there were an average of 10.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Chicago and more than the case growth rate in Grundy County.

Just as Grundy County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Chicago area, it also has the highest incidence of cases overall. As of May 13, there were a total of 11,577.8 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Grundy County, the most of the 14 counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 9,997.3 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Grundy County, unemployment peaked at 16.8% in April 2020. As of March 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 6.6%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending May 13. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Illinois where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA County Population New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 13 New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 6 Cumulative cases per 100,000 Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1 Grundy County 50,666 23.5 27.6 11,577.8 148.0
2 Porter County 168,636 22.0 26.9 11,134.0 182.6
3 Jasper County 33,447 21.2 20.2 10,942.7 140.5
4 Will County 689,315 20.8 25.1 10,915.2 143.5
5 Kendall County 126,054 20.4 25.4 10,291.6 73.8
6 Kane County 531,376 19.0 24.1 10,951.2 144.9
7 Lake County 485,707 18.9 20.4 11,070.7 199.7
8 McHenry County 307,714 17.8 24.0 9,255.7 92.6
9 Cook County 5,198,275 17.6 19.9 10,458.4 193.9
10 DuPage County 929,060 16.3 20.0 9,715.8 137.5
11 DeKalb County 104,366 16.3 26.3 9,426.4 114.0
12 Newton County 13,992 14.9 13.9 7,704.4 243.0
13 Lake County 701,473 14.5 16.1 9,549.0 140.6
14 Kenosha County 168,524 10.8 13.8 10,893.4 192.3

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