Watches and Warnings. Here it comes as you can see from the map at the top of the page. As of 2:00p.m. the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities pushed the Blizzard Warning across much of the metro area. As Paul says, you do not see this very often in urban areas.
2020 has robbed us of so many things. One thing this virus won't take away is a white Christmas. The question now is: how white (how many inches) and will anyone be able to safely drive on our highways later this afternoon and tonight? Never tell a Minnesotan not to drive, but I'm telling friends and family (and I consider you extended family, by the way) to stay put after the lunch hour.
Don't tempt fate.
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Winter Storm Severity Index. None of the meteorologists I work with on a daily basis at Praedictix and AerisWeather could ever remember a prediction of "Extreme Impacts" during the winter months for Minnesota. Granted, the NOAA WSSI scale is relatively new, but my take-away: this won't be a garden-variety winter storm. The combination of ice, blowing and drifting snow and high winds will create blizzard conditions across most of the state, including the Twin Cities metro. I would plan on hunkering down from midday today through at least midday Thursday, and give MnDOT crews a chance to open up major highways.
A few major take-aways:
1). No travel is advised from this afternoon through Thursday morning. There will be a convergence of problems on the roads: a layer of ice under the snow (what the National Weather Service is calling a "flash freeze" as this mornings wet roads freeze solid), blowing and drifting creating near-zero visibility and dangerous wind chill values by tonight. If you don't have to drive, stay put.
You'll thank yourself later today.
2). Winds are gusting over 60 mph right now across western Minnesota, and I could see 50-mph gusts in the Twin Cities. Odds are the power will stay on, but there is a small probability of power outages from the combination of ice building up on power lines and very high winds later today. Have a Plan B, just in case the lights go off.
3). When will it be safe to travel? My sense is by Thursday afternoon most freeways and interstates will be in OK shape. It's harder predicting road conditions than predicting the weather, but if you have the option Friday will be a much better day to hit the highways.
NOAA NAM Snowfall Prediction. (credit pivotalweather.com)
"All models are wrong, some are useful" a wise man (or woman?) once said, and I couldn't agree more. Weather models are only a guide, but meteorologists breathe a little easier when most of the models agree, and that - increasingly - appears to be the case with this storm.
Will the metro get 20" of snow? Doubtful, but I'm feeling more confident of 10"+ amounts by late tonight. It may be hard to measure, with wild winds blowing the snow around, but it should be a respectable pile of frozen water just in time for Christmas.
ECMWF Snowfall Prediction. This is from the overnight run, and to be fair, the European model had the right idea earlier than other models - ECMWF was predicting over a foot of snow for the metro all day Monday. Now NOAA's models are catching up and predicting similar amounts. Confidence levels are going up that this will be at least 8" for MSP, and more probably over a foot for many suburbs, especially northern and western suburbs of the Twin Cities.
Good News for Snow Lovers. NOAA's GFS model predicts temperatures close to average for highs (mid 20s) into next week, followed by a possible thaw nearly 2 weeks out - so there should be a nice, long runway to get out and enjoy this new mantle of Minnesota powder (credit: WeatherBell)
I hate using this expression, I will anyway: the situation is fluid. There will be a layer of ice, followed by a 12+ hour period of windblown snow and tumbling temperatures. The final snowfall tallies are very much up in the air. But it should be enough to delight snow lovers (and kids of all ages who still find magic in snow, especially this of year) and frustrate commuters and travelers trying to get to their destinations.
My favorite college professor had a ranking scale for winter storms, ranging from nuisance and plowable to crippling. I've been borrowing that scale ever since I graduated, and rarely have I used the term "crippling". But the more I look at the maps and the models, the more I suspect that this may very well wind up being a crippling combination of ice, snow and wind for much of Minnesota. Hunker down and ride out the storm.
Even now, the Minnesota State Patrol is warning drivers not to make unnecessary trips, especially to outstate areas. There are already whiteout conditions to our northwest towards the Fargo, Alexandria area and those will only be increasing.
MSP Airport is currently warning people to check with their airlines. While they expect to be able to remove snow, the wind and amount of snow is likely too much to keep up with and flights are expected to be delayed if not grounded.
Old Man Winter's way of making us quarantine...but this too shall pass. Be safe and Merry Christmas!
Paul will have continuous updates and read your reports (and gripes) this afternoon from 3-6 pm on WCCO Radio. Should be an interesting drive home for those of you out and about! Be safe.