Visiting an Old Friend: Brewers Head to Houston to Tackle Ailing Astros

In 2023, a stalwart team synonymous with winning their division fell from first to worst, when the Cardinals unceremoniously plummeted to the NL Central’s cellar. As the season reaches the quarter mark, it looks like the lousy play of the Cardinals wasn’t just a fluke, and now, they have another high-profile team for company in their miserable corner. The Brewers used to share a division with the Astros, but that was 11 years ago now. Since then, they’ve cemented themselves as a dynasty, with seven consecutive ALCS appearances and two World Series rings. As they defend their home turf, does Houston polish their damaged armor and begin their scrape back to relevance, or does the Brewers' division-leading play sustain? Let’s break it down.

PITCHING MATCHUPS
Friday, May 17th
Freddy Peralta (3-1 3.63 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (0-4 7.79 ERA)
Being heralded as the ace of a team who was (just last year) associated with having a trifecta of them has to be a source of some pressure. While Peralta may not be exactly putting up Cy Young-level production, he is doing a reasonably good job of holding his own. The Cardinals were able to find a way to gnaw at his stuff a bit in his last start, in what would ultimately be a no-decision. They tagged him for eight hits and three runs. Still, Peralta was solid enough to go six innings.

Early in the season, it’s not uncommon to see inflated ERA’s and pitchers getting FIPed to death on account of bad luck or shoddy infield defense, but it’s pretty difficult to take a look at the numbers Hunter Brown has put up and blame it on that. Hitters aren’t exactly barreling his pitches, but they're hitting it hard enough that it’s landing, to the tune of an ugly 2.01 WHIP. The only reason it’s not even higher is that, in his most recent appearance, he came out in long relief behind Cristian Javier to perform mop-up duties. He looked excellent, striking out seven and surrendering a single hit over five shutout innings. This was apparently enough to earn him another shot in the rotation, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll have a particularly long leash if things start going awry.

Saturday, May 18th
Bryse Wilson (2-1 2.65 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (2-1 3.38 ERA)
It was a hideous last start for Bryse Wilson, who walked more Cardinals than he pitched innings against them (five to four). He's allowed a slip here or there, though, given how excellent Wilson has been outside of that outing. Even with all that action on the basepaths, the Brewers righty still has an ERA of 1.80 over 10 innings in May, and has been generally solid.

What is really left to say about Justin Verlander? At 41, he’s already eclipsed the retirement age for most big-leaguers, but he’s also just a season and a quarter removed from his third Cy Young Award. The future Hall Of Famer has built his résumé not only on his elite arm, but also his above-average durability. The injuries have begun to creep up in his last couple of seasons, and with them have come a bit of diminishment in play, but Verlander is still a thing to behold on the mound when he’s locked in. That his start is sandwiched between two pitchers whose ERAs sit in the 7s should tell you that this might be the game to watch.

Sunday, May 19th
Colin Rea (3-1 3.45 ERA) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (1-4 7.52 ERA)
It’s a concerning stretch for Colin Rea, who (for the second time in as many games) got knocked around by opposing batters. Six hits and a walk led to three earned runs and ultimately a loss, but what’s more concerning is the sky-high expected batting average (xBA). It's now solidly at the .300 mark. The Astros aren’t playing with the ferocity they’ve been associated with the last several years, but that doesn’t mean they can’t absolutely destroy the pitching of someone who’s not on their game.

Another young Astros starter who probably hasn’t given Houston fans a whole lot to be optimistic about in this down season. Obviously still a work in progress, Spencer Arrighetti entered the majors as the Astros' third-rated prospect. Like most young arms, Arrighetti is taking his lumps, and nothing about his present struggles necessarily locks in his future ceiling. Still, if the Brewers are able to take advantage of his green arm, I don’t think fans will feel too badly about it.

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Kyle Tucker: A team can’t descend as drastically as the Astros, and from such great heights, without several key players either getting injured or taking huge steps back. One player who seems to have been immune from whatever is hexing Houston is the mighty Kyle Tucker. Every year for the last three seasons, Tucker has moved higher up the MVP ballot, going from 20th to 15th to 5th, and with consistent numbers like he’s putting up this year, it’s not hard to see why.

Currently, Tucker is leading the league in homers with 13 and an intimidating .997 OPS. The Crew is going to have to remember that, despite their opponents' unimpressive play, they can’t just sleepwalk through this lineup - not with a monster like this lying in wait.

Jeremy Pena: It raised some eyebrows when the Astros let erstwhile cornerstone Carlos Correa walk at the end of the 2021 season, after he put up an astounding 7.2 WAR season, but the front office in Houston had their eyes on a young player on the come-up. Young Jeremy Pena immediately wowed everyone with what was ultimately Gold Glove defense and a whopping 22 home runs - something you’d be happy to get from any shortstop.

It was a slow start to the season for Pena, but in the last 10 games, he’s gotten 13 hits and smashed a homer. The prolific power of his bat may be subdued compared to his rookie season, but he still has what it takes to help lift the Astros out of the cellar if he can keep hitting.

Joey Ortiz: If the peripherals mean anything, we’re about to see Joey Ortiz break out in a huge way. His .277/.384/.511 is a perfectly acceptable slash line by any major-league standard, but his xwOBA is an astounding .440, nearing the top five percent of the entire league! He’s hitting for a reasonable amount of power, he’s walking at a stellar rate and he’s barely ever striking out. Small sample sizes are what they are, but it’s not a ridiculous thing to say that the combination of Ortiz and Turang could make for a “best infield in the baseball” talking point if what these peripherals are whispering comes anywhere close to fruition. Matt Trueblood wrote about this very thing yesterday.

Christian Yelich: It seems like the Brewers are proceeding with caution when it comes to Christian Yelich. After abruptly putting an end to his MVP-caliber 2019 season by cracking a foul ball against his knee, Yelich hasn’t really put the pieces back together to be the fearsome batter he was for the season and a half before that. Early numbers have fans wondering if a delayed return to form may miraculously be manifesting, but having just returned from the IL with a strain in his back, it’s reasonable to see a gingerly paced return to action. Yelich was out of the lineup to wrap the series against the Pirates on Wednesday, so it’s likely that he’ll play a big part in this series. 

PREDICTIONS
The Astros are at home, and recent play has suggested that they may be finding their magic again. Still, two of the starters scheduled to pitch for Houston have been categorically bad to start the season. Being precious or pedantic about the Brewers offense at this point is insulting to how good they’ve been. The Brewers do what they do and take this series, two out of three.