The 2023 NBA Finals are scheduled to tip-off on Thursday night with Game 1 between the Heat and Nuggets. There's no shortage of stars with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Jimmy Butler in action, but Miami's Caleb Martin could once again threaten to steal the show. Martin, who narrowly missed being named Eastern Conference Finals MVP, has been the biggest breakout in this year's playoffs, averaging 14.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game.
Martin currently has +4000 odds to win Finals MVP, but bettors can likely turn more profit by investing in some of his other series props, including whether he'll lead the series in made three-pointers and the over/under on his points per game.
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Best Caleb Martin prop bets for 2023 NBA Finals
Caleb Martin to lead NBA Finals in top three-pointers made (+1000, BetMGM)
If you like Martin to go OVER 2.2 three-pointers made per game at -110 odds (which we'll discuss later), then why not try your hand at betting him to lead the NBA Finals in threes made at 10/1 odds? Jamal Murray, who's made 47 threes in the postseason and has the third-highest average of made threes per game (3.1), is the favorite at -175.
Martin has made 39 threes this postseason, which is better than Jimmy Butler (21), Nikola Jokic (27), and Max Strus (37), who has the third-best odds (+650). The key for this prop to hit is his number of attempts. Martin averaged 6.4 attempts and made 22 threes in the Eastern Conference Finals, thanks in large part to his ever-increasing playing time. Martin played almost 45 minutes in Game 7 against the Celtics after proving to be an indispensable part of the rotation. Even if Tyler Herro (hand) returns at some point, Martin should see around 40 minutes per game. With that much opportunity, he has a decent chance of netting bettors a profit and leading the series in made triples.
Caleb Martin OVER 15.4 points per game (-110)
All remaining odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Martin must be one of the Heat's top-three scorers for them to have a shot to beat the Nuggets. He's coming off an excellent Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics, scoring 19.3 points per game on 60.2 percent shooting from the field and 48.9 percent from beyond the arc.
In that best-of-seven against Boston, Martin scored 15 or more points six times and made at least three or more threes five times, which is a clear blueprint for him to hit this average. The former Nevada standout has increasingly received more playing time in the playoffs and answered the call each time. With Bam Adebayo having to deal with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic inside the low post, the Heat must win on the perimeter. During the regular season, Martin scored eight points in his only matchup with the Nuggets. However, that will not stop us from taking the OVER, as he's playing with great confidence.
Caleb Martin UNDER 6.6 rebounds per game (-120)
This is a sneaky prop, as Martin has done an admirable job on the boards in the playoffs, averaging 5.7 rebounds per game, up from 4.8 in the regular season. However, throughout the three series in which Miami has played, Martin has never gone OVER 6.6 rebounds per game. He got close in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics, producing 6.4 boards per game after back-to-back double-digit rebound nights in Games 6 and 7.
Martin also recorded 12 rebound chances per game, which was the eighth-highest per-game average during this year's conference finals. Still, we like him going UNDER 6.6 boards per game for the Finals, as the Nuggets' frontcourt is packed with size with Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon, who can all handle their business on the glass.
Caleb Martin OVER 2.2 threes made per game (-110)
Since we like Martin to go OVER his points per game average for the series, it's only right that we take the OVER on his threes made per game for the Finals. The 27-year-old forward went off against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, shooting a healthy 48.9 percent from beyond the arc and knocking down 3.1 threes per game on 6.4 attempts.
Martin's ability to shoot the three confidently, which he didn't do enough of in the first two rounds (1.4 threes made per game vs. Milwaukee and 1.7 threes made per vs. New York), helped open the floor for Butler and the rest of Miami's players. The Nuggets are allowing opponents to shoot 34.2 percent from three in the playoffs, and teams are making just 9.9 threes per game (third lowest in the postseason). For Martin to hit the OVER, he must make 12 threes if the series goes five games. If the Finals go six games, Martin must convert at least 14 threes over that window. Both seem doable for this red-hot shooter.