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Best NBA Finals Game 1 prop bets: SuperDraft player prop picks for Nuggets-Heat, including a Nikola Jokic discount

By Sloan Piva,


The 2023 NBA Finals is finally upon us, with the Nuggets and Heat scheduled to tip off Thursday night at Ball Arena in Denver (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). We have already discussed this game and the series in general from a betting perspective. Now, we're going to highlight the SuperDraft player props we like the most for this Mile-High championship clash.

Two of the most popular picks, no doubt, will be two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and five-time All-NBA and All-Defensive selection Jimmy Butler. The respective 2023 conference finals MVPs continue to prove their worth among the best players in the sport, and they should be a sight to behold on the Association's biggest stage.

However, plenty of other intriguing players have emerged this postseason as solid prop options. Often, these players yield more value in the over/under market since their stat projections aren't as inflated as the superstar franchise cornerstones.

MORE GAME 1: Betting preview | Exotic props

Caleb Martin's breakout in Miami's Eastern Conference title run had many thinking he deserved ECF MVP over Butler. Fellow undrafted stud Gabe Vincent hit some huge shots and had the best pass of the series. Max Strus continues to light it up from outside. Even Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love made an impact. It's the antithesis of a superteam, making this season arguably the most impressive coaching effort of Erik Spoelstra's illustrious career.

Denver has even more depth around its MVP. Jamal Murray looks to be back in the form we saw from him in the bubble. Michael Porter Jr. is finally healthy and regularly showcasing his smooth stroke. Aaron Gordon is playing the most impactful hoops of his career. Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are two of the stronger three-and-D guys in the NBA. Mike Malone's unit is a well-oiled machine.

Series best bets | Series props | Series player props | MVP odds | ATS, O/U records

If basketball fans want to bet on Jokic, Butler, or any player from their respective supporting casts, SuperDraft makes for a great site to do so. SuperDraft bettors can pick an over/under on two or more player props. If they hit both legs of a two-prop bet, they win up to 3X the amount wagered. The potential return increases each time a prop gets added. Think of it as a "Same Game Parlay." More legs equal more risk, but also a bigger potential payout.  However, not all players have the same props, so keep that in mind as you pick your over/under plays and try to win some cash during Game 1.

MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit match up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” for a free $10 when you register

SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Heat-Nuggets Game 1

Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets — OVER 22.5 points

This is as close to a 'Free Square' as it gets without being listed as such. Jokic has scored at least 23 points in 12 consecutive games, and he's averaging a hair under 30 points per game this postseason. Bam Adebayo, a perennial All-Defensive selection, often struggles to contain the two-time MVP down low. Joker has averaged 23.8 points per game against the Heat over the past two seasons, and we have him feasting on Miami again this evening. Smash the OVER like Jokic smashed Markief Morris when these teams met in November 2021.

Jimmy Butler, G/F, Heat — OVER 7 rebounds

With top Heat rebounder Adebayo set to battle Jokic down low all series, it will be imperative for Butler to continue to crash the boards for Miami to have any shot this series. The Joker regularly pulls down double-digit boards against the Heat, so we have Butler clearing eight rebounds for the fifth time in his past seven postseason starts.

Jamal Murray, G, Nuggets — OVER 25.5 points

Murray first showed off his ice-in-the-veins postseason scoring ability to the world during the 2020 Bubble Playoffs, but injury reared its ugly head for the stud point guard in the seasons following that Western Conference Finals run. Well, he's back to the dominant pure scorer he showed himself to be three years ago, and he's easily the second- or third-best offensive threat in this Finals. The more Jokic garners extra defensive attention from the Heat, the more space Murray will have to knock down three-pointers and drive to the hoop. We're projecting him at 28 points in Game 1. He had 31 points in Game 1 of the WCF against the Lakers and 37 in both Games 2 and 3.


Bam Adebayo, C, Heat — UNDER 29.5 points + rebounds + assists

While Adebayo has established himself as a great defender, he continues to disappoint offensively in the playoffs. Bam fans want him to be Miami's second scoring option behind Butler — but even with Tyler Herro out with a hand injury, the big man finished the Eastern Conference Finals as the Heat's fourth-leading scorer. The craziest part: he didn't even finish the series with 10 rebounds per game! All said, Bam averaged 14.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. Quick math tells us that adds up to 28.4, well under our limbo line of 29.5. Bam should only be worse against Jokic and company, especially in Denver — he averaged 27 points + rebounds + assists against the Nugs this season and Mike Malone's squad has enjoyed 10 days to rest and prepare for this one.

MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit match up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” for a free $10 when you register

Caleb Martin, F, Heat — OVER 16.5 points

Martin broke out in a major way during the Eastern Conference Finals, so much so that many believed he deserved the Bob Cousy Award over Butler. The 27-year-old wing is brimming with confidence after averaging over 19 points per game during the seven-game series. He should continue to be heavily utilized in the Heat offense, at least until Tyler Herro returns from his hand injury. We're almost as confident in Martin's ability to score 17 as we are in Murray scoring 26.

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