Know Your Opponent: Previewing the Dodgers
The Diamondbacks open their season on the road against the Dodgers today, Thursday, March 30th, with a 7:10 P.M. start time. The juggernaut from LA has won the NL West nine of the last 10 season, only finishing second to the Giants in 2021 despite winning 106 games that year. They've only won the World Series one time in that span however, and that was the pandemic-shortened season of 2020. They made two other trips to the Fall Classic in 2017 and 2018, losing both times.
Still, it's impossible to argue their organization hasn't been historically successful. They have a .613 win percentage over the last 10 years, or a 99-63 pace on average. Most of that run has occurred with executive Andrew Friedman at the helm of baseball operations since the 2014 season.
It may be tempting to point to their large payroll, often two and half times larger than the Diamondbacks, and think they've just bought their way to competitiveness every year. But that would be a mistake. Despite never picking high in the draft, they've made astute selections and have a player development system that is second to none, churning out good young players, especially pitching, year after year. Even now their minor league system is ranked third best in MLB by Baseball America, just behind the Diamondbacks at number two.
Their grip on the NL West could be loosening this year however. The San Diego Padres have made a huge investment in their roster bringing in a bevy of stars, carrying a massive payroll. Most projection systems and betting lines have the Padres and Dodgers neck and neck, and some even have the Padres coming out on top with the Dodgers fighting for a wild card. While those projections are all close enough to fall either way, here are some of the reasons that gap has narrowed.
Key Departures:
Justin Turner, often dubbed "The Red Menace" by the Diamondbacks broadcasting crew, is now a member of the Boston Red Sox. Turner terrorized NL West opponents for years, and while there will still be a handful of inter league games, I'm sure the other teams in the division are happy to see him go.
Trea Turner is one of the best players in the National League and for the season and a half he was with the Dodgers he was arguably their best player, putting up 7.3 WAR and a 128 OPS+. Turner signed a huge free agent contract with the Phillies this past off season.
Last year's surprise breakout starter was Tyler Anderson. He went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA, but signed with the Angels during the off season.
Cody Bellinger was signed by the Chicago Cubs in free agency and Trevor Bauer was banished to Japan.
Craig Kimbrel, who saved 22 of the team's 43 games last year, is now a member of the Phillies.
Big Injuries:
Starting pitcher Walker Buehler is likely out for the year due to Tommy John Surgery.
Shortstop Gavin Lux, who was supposed to fill Trea Turner's shoes, is out for the year with a torn ACL.
Starter Tony Gonsolin is out until late April with an ankle sprain, and reliever Daniel Hudson is looking for a late April return from a torn ACL suffered last year.
Holdover Stars
Despite the above losses, the Dodgers still have a formidable roster, led by perennial MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. They still have slugger Max Muncy to man third base, and slugging catcher Will Smith behind the plate.
Last year's 3rd place finisher in the Cy Young race Julio Urias will start opening day, and future hall of famer Clayton Kershaw is back on a one year contract. Dustin May is back too and looking to build up his workload in 2023. He has terrific stuff and if he can stay healthy still has ace potential.
New Additions:
While perhaps not the most important addition, the one that will stand out like a sore thumb to many Diamondbacks fans is the signing of fan favorite David Peralta. Josh Rojas jokingly called Peralta a traitor while mic'd up during a spring training broadcast. Funny because it's true ?
Another former Diamondback, J.D. Martinez was signed to be the DH. While not the same hitter he was when he exploded for the Diamondbacks in the second half of 2017, he still posted a 123 OPS+ in 1,100 plate appearances over the last two years.
Former Marlin Miguel Rojas was brought in to provide depth on the infield, but with the Lux injury will need to step up and play full time shortstop.
Two other veteran free agent signings include pitcher Noah Syndergaard, who will be in the rotation, and outfielder Jason Heyward, who will be the 4th outfielder.
One more key addition is an internal one. Prospect Miguel Vargas will take over at second base. Vargas has hit over .300 at every level of the minor leagues and over the last two years his power began to emerge too. Just 23 years old, he received a 50 plate appearance cup of coffee last year, hitting just .170. Expect much more in 2023.
Bullpen Questions
As explained by Clint Pasillas at our sister site Inside the Dodgers, manager Dave Roberts is in a similar situation as Torey Lovullo when it comes to the closer's role. There are numerous candidates to win the role during the season, but nobody has been named closer as of this time and a committee is a committee by any other name.
Summary:
The Dodger's roster has seen a great deal of turnover, and the subtractions appear to be more than the additions, at least on paper. Fangraphs projects just 87 wins. But Baseball Prospectus figures 94 wins, and the Vegas betting lines are around 95. They still have plenty of pitching and firepower to stay near the top. With their deep farm system and financial resources they will be in a prime position to make a mid season trade to make another push. So while the Padres are the media darlings and the team everyone expects to win the west, count out the Dodgers at your own peril.
