Dreams and Nightmares: Texans 2024 Draft

Meek Mill may not be in the Big Three of rappers, but his hit song Dreams and Nightmares is an all time hype up song that was the anthem of 2019.

I wrote this same column in 2022 heading into the draft coverage and thought I could bring this back again as we approach the phase of the pre-draft process that’s all smoke and mirrors. Logistically, nothing will change from now until the draft, unless you’re T’Vondre Sweat at this point....

Jokes aside, Houston is in a good place compared to this time last year. What can put them over the hump is a big win in the draft.

Nightmare: Houston mortgages too much draft capital to move back into the first round. No one expects Houston to use all nine of its draft picks, so there's reason to believe they’ll move up. But will the gnawing sensation of not drafting on night one compel GM Nick Caserio to expend exorbitant draft capital to make it happen? Hopefully not.

Dream: One of the top cornerbacks falls into the second. For some reason I have begun to see Nate Wiggins and Kool-Aid McKinstry available in the second round. If that’s the case come next Friday, the league will be giving Houston an immense favor. Houston would head into next season with two young bona-fide CB1s.

Nightmare: Run on defensive players early in round two. Tyler Nubin, Kamari Lassiter, Edgerrin Cooper, Braden Fiske, T.J. Tampa, Javon Bullard, Kris Jenkins all off the board? Possibly. Yes, there’s plenty of other defenders capable of being drafted at 42, but Houston is hoping to snag an elite, day-1 prospect still hanging around the mid second round. A run on defense after a heavy offense first round would dilute from the pool of prospects Houston can pick from.

Dream: Houston snags a talented running back in the fourth round. RB is a position of value later in the draft - especially in a class where there’s zero consensus on the top seven running backs. Houston could easily draft their second or third ranked back in the fourth round and be set at the position for several seasons.

Nightmare: Houston waits too long to address defensive tackle. Houston has added a handful of DTs during free agent; enough to go into the season with. However, their cumulative upside is limited. This isn’t a fantastic pool of DT prospects, meaning that if a string of them come off the board between Houston’s picks, the players available may not be talented enough to improve upon the current group.

Dream: Offense takes up 65% of the first 41 picks. For the non-math inclined, that's 26-27 picks. Realistically, Houston needs six QBs, 12 offensive lineman, one tight end, and eight wide receivers. That’s extremely do-able given this draft class.

Nightmare: Houston takes another interior offensive lineman on day two. Enough is enough, or is it? The goal is to provide weapons and protection around C.J. Stroud. Weapons have been acquired, but at what point have we invested enough in the offensive line, particularly interior? Three draft choices past two seasons - including two in the first two rounds, paying Shaq Mason to be the 12th highest player on the team (it was a lot higher pre-free agency), and huge deals for both tackles. Sure, Houston does have a need at backup tackle, but is it worth expending a second rounder on when that can be used for a starting corner or safety?

Dream: Finding a developmental offensive tackle gem on day three. Do y’all remember Derek Newton?A tad conflicting to the nightmare? Yes, a little bit. But there’s a fine line to be made. Houston will eventually need to replace Titus Howard and Laremy Tunsil. I can’t stress the importance of protecting Stroud long term. Look at what offensive line woes did to Justin Herbert’s career. If the Texans can address the secondary and interior defensive line issues, then sure up the offensive tackle spot later, that would be poetic.

Nightmare: Teams are less willing to trade with Houston now that they’re a contender

Nick Caserio has made his hay the past two drafts sliding his way up and down the draft. The flexibility allowed Houston to maximize their immense draft capital to cobble together legitimate talent. Now, Houston is on the map more than any other time in its history. That means that other teams are less inclined to help benefit Houston in their endeavor to acquire more draft capital or move up in the draft. If that’s the case, they can wind up being blacklisted from trade partners or asked to expend more for the same trade than before.