Betting on the hard-hitting Blue Jays is fun.
Lucky for us, there’s value on Toronto’s matchup Tuesday with Houston.
Over the past two weeks, the Blue Jays are slugging over .500 against right-handed pitching, posting the highest wRC+ in MLB against the right side during that stretch (141).
Meanwhile, the Astros profile, project, and perform better against left-handed pitching.
So, on paper, Toronto has a massive advantage in a matchup between two right-handed starting pitchers.
Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction
(7:07 p.m. ET.)
Kevin Gausman is a perennial AL Cy Young candidate.
He’s working with a 2.76 ERA and 3.32 expected ERA this season behind the league’s best four-seam and split-finger combinations.
Hunter Brown, 24, is impressive, but his numbers are about a half-run worse (3.61 ERA, 3.67 expected ERA).
He also grades out slightly worse than Gausman by FanGraphs’ Pitching+ model, which “uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process.”
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
- Read about the Best Baseball Betting Sites
- Learn all about How to Bet on Baseball
- Get the latest World Series Odds
It’s tough to discern which team has the bullpen advantage, but Toronto’s has been better recently.
Add in home-field advantage, and the Blue Jays are a great bet on Tuesday.
Blue Jays vs. Astros pick
THE PLAY: Blue Jays -124 (BetRivers)