Houston, we have a new favorite to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
After an action-packed opening weekend of March Madness 2023, top overall seed Alabama (+350) overtook fellow No. 1 seed Houston (+400) as the outright favorite to win the national championship ahead of this weekend’s Sweet 16, according to the latest title odds at BetMGM.
No. 2 seeds UCLA (+800) and Texas (+900) and red-hot No. 4 seed Connecticut (+900) are the only other teams dealing at shorter than 10/1 odds as of Monday.
2023 NCAA Tournament March Madness betting odds
(via BetMGM)
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alabama | +350 |
| Houston | +400 |
| UCLA | +800 |
| Texas | +900 |
| Connecticut | +900 |
| Creighton | +1000 |
| Gonzaga | +1100 |
| Tennessee | +1400 |
| Michigan State | +2500 |
| Kansas State | +2500 |
| Arkansas | +3000 |
| Xavier | +3000 |
| San Diego State | +4000 |
| Miami | +5000 |
| Florida Atlantic | +5000 |
| Princeton | +15000 |
Alabama, Houston favored to win 2023 NCAA Tournament
Houston entered the NCAA Tournament as the favorite to cut down the nets in its own backyard, which had been the case for practically the entire season.
It’s easy to see why: the Cougars have the best record in college basketball (33-3) and have ranked No. 1 in KenPom all season.
They’re also the only team in the country with top-10 efficiency on offense (ninth) and defense (fourth), which is often a precursor of tournament success.
Yet no team is playing better right now than Alabama, which blew out Maryland by 22 points in Saturday’s second round after blitzing Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in its tournament opener.
That’s par for the course for the Crimson Tide, who boast the highest scoring margin (+14.1) of any high-major team despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country.
They also feature arguably the best player in the field in Brandon Miller, who shook off a scoreless first round with a 19-point effort in Saturday’s blowout win.
Should those two win out, they wouldn’t meet until the national championship game, which would double as a rematch of Alabama’s thrilling 71-65 win on Dec. 10.
The Crimson Tide erased a 15-point deficit in that one to beat the Cougars in Houston, which is also where this year’s Final Four will take place.
But while Alabama and Houston are the clear favorites to win it all, it’s hard to overlook how well UConn and Texas are playing through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Over the last month, those two teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in T-Rank’s power rating, respectively, and they both join Houston and Alabama as the only four teams with top-20 efficiency on both ends across the entire season.
With both teams dealing at an identical 9/1, the numbers favor Connecticut, which has a slightly easier path to the Final Four and a more dominant inside-outside approach offensively.
Yet Texas’ defense has been the best in the country over the last few weeks and could be enough to elevate this group to a title.
This year’s NCAA Tournament has been defined by major upsets through the first two rounds. Who says that can’t continue over the next two weeks, too?
We could see that as soon as Thursday, when title long shot Florida Atlantic (50/1) takes on Tennessee in a game that should be closer than the betting line (Tennessee -5.5) would suggest.
The Owls are one of eight teams with top-40 efficiency on both ends and generate 37.2% of their points from long range – a dangerous approach that could carry this team on a Cinderella run.
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Also watch out for San Diego State, which faces a tall task Friday against title favorite Alabama.
If the Aztecs can control the pace of that game and coax the Crimson Tide into ill-advised shots from deep, that could be enough to spark a deep run for Brian Dutcher’s group in a field devoid of traditional heavyweights.
