It has been five weeks since Aaron Rodgers declared, during an appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show,” that he wanted to play for the Jets.
Five weeks later … we’re still waiting.
The standoff between the Jets and Packers over a Rodgers trade continues. Is there an end in sight? Since that March 15 interview, when it became clear that Rodgers wanted to come to the Jets, the question has been when the two teams could work out a deal. The biggest issue was there was no deadline to spur action. Rodgers had no bonus coming due. The two teams were not even close to practicing. Both sides could sit back and posture with no pressure points on the horizon.
That first pressure point is about to arrive, however, in the form of the 2023 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday. The feeling all along has been the draft may be what pushes the two sides to make a deal. We’ll soon find out.
The sticking point in the negotiations remains the Packers’ demand that the Jets include their 2024 first-round pick in any deal. As the Packers see it, Rodgers is a four-time MVP and the Jets clearly feel he will make their team a contender.
The Jets do not want to exchange an unconditional first-round pick for a player who will turn 40 on Dec. 2 and who may not play for the Jets in 2024. The Jets’ preference is to send Green Bay a conditional 2024 pick, a second-day pick that can become a first-round choice if certain conditions are met. It is unknown what conditions the Jets are putting forth. Examples of such a condition would be: If the Jets go to the AFC Championship game, then the pick would become a first-rounder, or if Rodgers wins an MVP, it would become a first-round pick.
If either side concedes on the 2024 draft pick, this deal can happen quickly.
That brings us back to the 2023 draft.
While the two sides are not discussing a first-round pick from this year, they are talking about one of the Jets’ two second-round picks going to the Packers. Those picks will be made sometime after the second round begins at 7 p.m. next Friday. That is the soft deadline now for a Rodgers deal to get done.
If the Packers want to come away from the trade with anything to show for it in 2023, they need it to happen by the time the Jets are on the clock with the 42nd-overall pick in the draft (they also have the 43rd). If the deal is not done by then, things would change drastically and the value of what the Packers could get in return for Rodgers would drop.
The teams then would be looking at the 2024 and 2025 drafts, which are much harder to predict. The Jets are going to be much more reluctant to deal premium picks for years in which they don’t even know who their quarterback will be.
I still believe this deal has to get done for both sides. The Packers can’t go back to Rodgers. They have made the full pivot to Jordan Love, both privately and publicly. The Jets have no Plan B. At some point, general managers Joe Douglas and Brian Gutekunst have to find a compromise and make it work.
As for the idea that another team can swoop in and grab Rodgers, that seems farfetched. Rodgers is clearly invested in the Jets and wants to come here. Calais Campbell revealed on “The Crew” podcast with reporter Josina Anderson that Rodgers texted him about joining the Jets, “Yo man, let’s go win a championship together.” Campbell chose the Falcons, but it shows that Rodgers is trying to make moves for the Jets.
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Douglas and Gutekunst have been engaged in posturing for weeks now and there have not been many discussions since the league meetings last month. That should change in the coming days, and the GMs need to figure out how to make this work. It is in both of their interests to get the deal done so their respective franchises can move on with their plans for the 2023 season.
Rodgers once referred to his future as a “beautiful mystery.” For the Jets and the Packers, the time has arrived to provide some clarity in that mystery.
