Florida weather: Tropical storm could form, bringing heavy rain to Volusia, Flagler

Although the low-pressure system Invest 91L over the Gulf of Mexico has a higher chance of becoming a short-lived tropical depression or storm than it did a few days ago, its impact on Volusia and Flagler counties has not changed significantly.

Additional development conditions for this system will be unlikely by the weekend, when it is expected to drift southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Regardless of development, the chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms remains for the Volusia area, said Robert Haley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

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“We have been saying even if the system undergoes tropical development, it really wouldn’t change the impacts we were expecting,” Haley said.

Although heavy rain and thunderstorm conditions are still expected, their chances for Volusia are a bit lower than what was predicted earlier this week.

Chances drop, but heavy rain, thunderstorms still likely

Friday and Saturday have a 40-50% chance of heavy rain, while Sunday has a 40% chance, Haley said.

“Even though the rain chances are dropping, the thing to be aware of is the heavy rain that can cause flooding that’s convectively driven — that means those small, heavy showers. We can’t predict exactly where those will develop,” Haley explained.

He said that Thursday morning, for example, one of these isolated heavy showers parked over Rockledge in Brevard County, bringing 5-6 inches of rain.

Because of this risk, the 2-3 inches of rain through Sunday could become 4-6 inches in isolated areas in Volusia and could cause flooding.

Similar conditions are expected in Flagler County, according to Flagler County Emergency Management.

Over the past few weekends, weather systems have also made surf conditions dangerous for beachgoers, with high risks of rip currents, which are expected to continue throughout the week, according to Volusia Beach Safety Captain Alex Miller.

The National Weather Service confirmed on Wednesday that these conditions would not start to improve until the beginning of next week.

Thursday marked the beginning of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The first named storm of the season will be Arlene.