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Economist gives Arkansas a 22.2% chance to make it to the College World Series

To secure their fifth consecutive super regional appearance and maintain pursuit of a 12th College World Series berth, the Razorbacks must endure a double-elimination tournament featuring TCU, Arizona, and Santa Clara.

Parker Fleming, an economist and data scientist who dabbles in sports analytics, gives Arkansas a 22.2% chance to return to Omaha for the fourth time in five tries.

Upon initial observation, one might perceive this as a negative remark toward the Razorbacks. However, it is simply a result of challenging matchups against teams that possess a higher caliber than their record, which is what RPI suggests.

Auburn athletic director and chairman of the selection committee, John Cohen, recognizes flaws in college baseball’s RPI metric. He calls for changes to increase accuracy.

“There needs to be some statistical experts to come in and help us recreate this thing,” Cohen said on ESPN2’s selection show. “The thing about baseball is it’s a geographical sport, so there’s advantages to warmer weather, we know that in the South, Southeast and out West. I would love to see it changed.”

Fleming described his model as a “simple opponent-adjusted pitching and hitting model, with recency weighting,” the Fayetteville Regional is the toughest for the 16 hosts, based on the average rating of the other three schools.

According to Fleming’s model, the Razorbacks are still the favorite to advance but have just a 36.8% chance to do so, which is the second-lowest among hosts. TCU follows them at 25.6% and Arizona at 24.8%. Even Santa Clara has a 12.8% chance to win the regional — the highest chance of any four seed in the NCAA Tournament.

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