The New York Islanders are on the cusp on qualifying for the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Isles have collected 87 points in their first 76 games and entered Thursday five points ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins (who have two games in hand on the Isles) and six points up on the Florida Panthers in the three-team race for the two wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference.
At the All-Star break, the Isles were +300 to make the postseason. With six games to go, that number has been slashed to -1100.
While the Islanders certainly benefited from the inconsistent play of teams around them in the standings, the narrative around this wild-card race has been that “nobody seems to want to win it.”
Teams such as Washington, Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Florida all had chances to run away with a playoff spot had they strung together a meaningful hot streak, but none could find a way to get their game together.
On the other hand, the Islanders have quietly put together a 14-6-4 stretch since the All-Star Game.
That’s good enough for a 109-point pace and is the eighth-best mark in the NHL during that span, putting them ahead of contenders such as New Jersey, Carolina, Toronto and Dallas.
Not too shabby for a team that was mocked for making a win-now trade for Bo Horvat in January because nobody expected them to be in the playoff race.
There is still work to do to get into the postseason, and the Isles will want to finish in the first wild-card spot to avoid a Round 1 tussle with the historically good Boston Bruins.
But even with that uncertainty ahead of them, there are some emerging signals that the Islanders could be a live long shot if they get into the tournament.
The most obvious reason that the Islanders have a chance to make some noise in the playoffs is that they have one of, if not the best, goaltenders in the NHL this season.
Ilya Sorokin ranks third in the NHL in save percentage (.924), and his +37.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) is the second-best mark in the NHL, per MoneyPuck.
With Sorokin in goal, the Isles will have a puncher’s chance against any team in the tournament.
But this hot stretch has not just been about goaltending.
The Islanders are 14-6-4 since trading for Horvat, and 17 of those games came after the Isles lost Mat Barzal to a lower-body injury.
The Isles are 11-4-2 with a +16 goal difference without Barzal.
There is no timetable for Barzal’s return, but if he does come back for the postseason, he’ll provide an offensive jolt to a team that’s biggest concern is creating offense and finding consistency on the power play.
With their goaltending and a steadily improving defense, the Islanders won’t need to run up the score to win games, so just adding a little bit more offense would be a big deal for a team that has no issues winning 2-1 or 3-2 every night.
The Islanders aren’t here to outscore you; they’re here to outwill you.
At the time of writing, the Islanders are 66/1 to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM.
Whether you think the Isles can make a run or not, that number is too long.
All you need to do to recognize the value is see the Penguins hanging at 40/1 in the same market.
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Pittsburgh is 12-12-1 in its last 25 contests and is far from a lock to even get into the postseason.
Love ’em or hate ’em, the Islanders have re-embraced their identity, making them a very dangerous team this spring.
Whether they can make another deep run or not remains to be seen, but there’s no way this team should be sitting at 66/1 based on what we’ve seen from it over the past two months.