Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Nuggets and the Heat tips off on Sunday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC), with Miami still licking its wounds from a commanding 104-93 win. Many believe the underdog Heat still have plenty of fight left in them, but the majority of the betting public seems to think otherwise.
According to our friends at BetMGM, 43 percent of the 'exact series outcome' money is on Denver to win the series 4-0. As a result of this overwhelming spike in action, the sportsbook has shifted the Nuggets' odds to sweep from +450 to +350.
That equates to a probability of nearly 25 percent, a pretty sizable number considering only one NBA Finals game has been played. The +350 doesn't necessarily mean that BetMGM has no faith in Miami — it's likely more of an attempt to soften the book's liability if the Heat indeed fail to register a win.
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Now, this action represents just the 'exact series outcome' crowd, not the entire NBA Finals betting landscape. Plenty of sharps have been attacking the Heat +8.5 ahead of Game 2, backing Jimmy Butler and his squad to cover their 12th spread in 16 postseason games as 'dogs. According to BetMGM, 53 percent of bets and 59 percent of the handle is on Miami to cover.
The Heat have seen even more action on the moneyline for Sunday's game, garnering a whopping 82 percent of tickets and 72 percent of the money on their ML, which opened at +300 and currently sits at +290. Still, the majority of bettors — 67 percent, to be exact — have the Nuggets coming away with their first NBA championship in franchise history.
We're taking the Heat with the points in Game 2 — we just don't see Miami laying another egg, and think we will see Butler and crew get much more aggressive with Jokic and company. We would be blown away if Max Strus shot 0-10 again, or Miami failed to attempt three free throws.
However, we are leaning toward Denver winning the series spread by at least 2.5 games (-125), as we have the West's No. 1 seed winning in either four or five games. That way, it's not all or nothing — we will win money (albeit not as much) whether the Nugs lock it down in a sweep or a gentleman's sweep.