As I predicted in my Game 1 preview, the Nuggets won and covered the NBA Finals opener.
The Heat looked exhausted following the seven-game series with Boston.
Jimmy Butler looked timid and Miami’s role players struggled as the Heat saw much-needed shooting regression.
Most importantly, Miami couldn’t stop Denver’s offense.
The Heat should be able to adjust in Game 2. However, the Nuggets also have things to work on.
If both teams make the right adjustments, you can bank on a higher-scoring affair.
Odds via Caesars.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 2 pick
(8:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
Both teams did things well in Game 1.
The Heat were dominant using Bam Adebayo in the pick-and-roll.
The Heat big man finished with 26 points on 25 shots, dominating at the rim and from the mid-range.
Also, Adebayo was great at taking advantage of Nikola Jokic’s uncharacteristic defensive mistakes. Jokic was a step behind all night, and Bam burned him.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets put together a solid overall game, posting a 55.7% effective field goal rate and a 114.4 Offensive Rating.
Specifically, Denver handled Miami’s zone defense with ease:
However, both teams have things they can do much better in Game 2.
First, both teams should see positive shooting regression.
The Heat shot 13-for-39 from deep (33.3%), while the Nuggets shot 8-for-27 (29.6%).
The Heat saw numerous role players struggle, with Caleb Martin, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson combining to shoot 2-for-23 from the field.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets had tough shooting nights from Jamal Murray (2-for-7 from 3) and Michael Porter Jr. (2-for-11 from 3).
More shots will drop in Game 2.
Denver’s offensive numbers were dragged down by tough shooting luck.
The Nuggets boasted a 123.5 Offensive Rating through three quarters in Game 1 before shooting 0-for-8 from 3 in the fourth.
The Nuggets could’ve scored 115 points if it weren’t for untimely shooting luck.
Meanwhile, the Heat need to attack the rim more.
They attempted only two free throws, completely uncharacteristic for a team led by Butler.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
- Use the North Carolina betting apps
In Game 3, I expect more paint points and free throws from the Heat, and more 3-pointers from both teams.
So, I only see the scoring going up after a low-scoring Game 1.
The Game 1 total closed at 218, and the books set the total a few points lower as a reaction.
However, I think we’re in for a higher-scoring Game 2 instead of a lower-scoring one, and I’ll happily take advantage of the depressed number.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 2 pick
Over 215 (-110) | Play to 218 (-110)